
NVDA - 2 inside bars on declining volume. It started off very nicely but the retest of the ORH turned into a retracement so I bailed.
NVDA - 2 inside bars on declining volume. It started off very nicely but the retest of the ORH turned into a retracement so I bailed.
TSO was a gapper from the Briefing.com list. After a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the ORH to the morning swing low, TSO stalled. Short after price reverses and takes out 5 period ema. These types of setups usually move slowly until the swing low is taken out, at which point, it should accelerate as TSO did. I covered at the 50% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL.
Monday Nov. 19th - DISH caught my eye from the Briefing.com gapper list because it's also a WL stock. It gapped up on an M&A chatter and carved out a WOR with a long upper shadow. Price held support of the 200 SMA (red line) as it consolidated sideways in the upper half of the OR. As price and the upward sloping 5 period ema came together, it printed NR7 (price and volume contraction ahead of expansion). I entered long on a B&B setup above the blue line. I moved my stop up aggressively in order to preserve profits and I was stopped out on the first sign of weakness.
CSIQ was an earnings gap from the Briefing.com gapper list. Not sure where they came up with the name as this is a Chinese co., not Canadian. Anyway, after gapping up, it traded sideways until price and the rising 5 period ema came together. After carving out a NRB on very low volume, price started to expand. I went long before it took out the ORH - mini B&B or a base within a base. Once the ORH was taken out, it ran up quickly to the 50% Fibonacci extension level of the previous day low to the ORH. I locked in a partial and I was stopped out on the balance as price started to retrace following a star with a long upper shadow.

Market volatility decreased sharply today as the equities staged a technical bounce. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) closed -6.99 (-22.5%) to 24.10, while the tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) closed -5.23 (-15.0%) to 29.71. The CBOE put/call ratio closed at 1.21, indicating more active put trading than call trading. The TRIN ended the session under 0.50 (0.32) which bodes well for continuation tomorrow.
I ran a momentum scan midday and found NAFC. The scan looks for NASDAQ stocks trading at 20% higher volume and 10% higher price than the previous day. Since I run this scan late in the morning, I'm looking for a normal retracement from the morning swing high to set up a second leg. I define a normal retracement as 38% from the ORL to the morning swing high. The other criteria to look for is lower volume on the retracement (higher volume is indicative of a reversal) and that price does not breach the rising 20 period ema on the retracement.
CAL was a play on lower oil. After gapping open it retraced and swung back above the ORH on a WR bullish bar then printed 2 inside bars in the upper range of the WRB, setting up a low risk long.


CBOE Put/Call ratio reading below 1.00 suggests more active call buying than put trading.
The late day slide left the NASDAQ Comp, down as much as 8.5% over the last four days alone (Nasdaq 100 -11%) and sitting just above its 200 sma. The aggressive nature of this decline has created a deeply oversold posture but the short term pattern suggests potential for further weakness into Tuesday unless we see some sustained gains back above today's close in early trade.
DNA for OSIP rumor making the rounds. OSIP one of the few bullish charts on my radar.
The first chart is the daily time frame for NVDA. The blue lines highlight the pivot points. The upper line is positioned on the pivot low from Friday and Oct. and the lower blue line marks the pivot high from July. Once the pivots were taken out, NVDA set up a nice short as we can see from the 15 minute chart below. The target was the green line above around $30.40.
After taking out the first PP, NVDA consolidated in the lower half of the previous WRB. Price could not regain the lost PP and the third consolidation bar was bearish. I shorted a break of $32.00 and took a partial as price approached $31.00. NVDA consolidated at the base of S2 (red line) for a lengthy period before continuing lower. It surpassed the target into the close on accelerating volume.


Although down substantially from the previous two sessions, the markets were hit again in the early going amid additional credit issues/write downs (WB, BCS) and a disappointing outlook in technology from QCOM. The averages slipped under Thursday's lows and attempted to pick themselves up but were met with some aggressive selling into the close ahead of the banking long weekend. Still, the Comp held at the 50% retracement of the Aug-Oct rally at 2624 (session low 2624), while the S&P 500 stabilized near the 62% retracement at 1449 (session low 1448.51).
A disappointing earnings report sent CROX into a free fall. Once it closed below its 200 DMA on the daily, it wasn't able to recapture it on a closing basis, carving out two narrow range inside bars (NRIBs) on declining volume. Despite being oversold the NRIBs in the lower half of the previous WRB were signalling more selling to come - CROX is a WL stock and it was a HCPG pick as well.
As you can see from the 15 minute timeframe above, CROX didn't waste any time on Thursday. The second bar manages to hold support on a closing basis, but the third bar closes into S2 (red line). The fourth bar retests former support, but prints a long upper shadow signalling a failure. I shorted a break of the fourth bar low as the down sloping 5 period ema was in very close proximity. I took a partial after three WRBs and covered the balance after it reversed sharply on higher volume.
On Friday CROX set up another trade, this time a bullish flag BO. I took a partial as price rallied into the down sloping 50 MA and exited the balance when resistance at the blue line held on the first test.
The above chart is the Canadian RIMM chart on the TSE for Thursday which is almost identical to the NASDAQ chart except for price.
NT was an earnings gap that took out the ORH on the next bar. Eventually it carved out a base & break setup at the early swing high (almost a C&H) and rallied into the close along with the markets. The key take away on this type of setup is the orderly retracement on declining volume and the higher lows leading into the late day BO. After a big thrust like this one on the open, price needs plenty of time to consolidate the move so you need a lot of patience before the second leg up develops.
The DVA trade above failed when the 7th bar could not recapture the 20 ema on a closing basis. The doji like stick with long upper wick foreshadowed further weakness. As soon as price moved below the doji, it was time to scratch the trade.
Just wanted to follow-up on CROX which sold off again today. I think its oversold and if price can regain the lower blue line and the 50MA (green), it should rally back up to $50.00
I traded ATHN on Friday and mentioned in my post that this was a potential BO candidate. Hope you guys added it to your WL.
Despite market weakness, ATHN was a momentum continuation play as it took out its daily pivot high and quickly rallied up to R2, paused briefly, before extending further. Midday it retraced 38% of the move from the ORL to the morning swing high - 38% is a normal retracement and often sets ups a second leg.
Technically, we have a potential hammer reversal, however, there is a black cloud over the market with respect to the Finance sector. First MER and now Citi's Prince is out. Financials weighing on Asian markets as well as U.S, futures.
The first chart is the daily time frame for CROX. We see that Friday's low lines up nicely with pivot point support which has been in play several times since last June as highlighted by the blue arrows. Other key take aways here are the capitulation volume over the last two sessions and the proximity of the rising 200 DMA. The angle of the MA is important because a flat or down sloping 200 DMA is not as supportive as a rising MA.
The second chart is the weekly time frame where we can see that CROX has retraced almost 50% from the all time low to last week's high. Also note the wide bearish engulfing bar.
The third chart is the 15 minute time frame. The key takeaway here is the blue line which is the intra-day PP. Price tested and failed the $50.00 area on Thursday and Friday. Usually the third test is the one that succeeds, so set an alert at this level for a potential BO.
If price takes out Friday's low, look for support on a test of the 200 DMA.
Fibonacci:
The SIRF chart below was traded on Thursday (day after wide gap) and the question is how to place Fib extension lines.
If a stock does not extend to the 38% level on the gap day, I usually leave the Fibs intact and look for an extension the following day. This is quite common for very wide gaps. Thursday SIRF gapped slightly lower and held support of the ORH from the previous day as support on a closing basis. The blue line held as intra-day support on a closing basis on Wednesday afternoon and on Thursday it held as resistance in early trade. Once price took out the blue line, it was safe to go long. Price then eventually extended just pennies shy of the target 38%.

ATHN gapped up on earnings and carved out an inverted hammer. The next two bars were inside on declining volume. The second inside bar was a bullish green hammer so I took a dummy long above the second bar high. The BO bar closed above the ORH. After that we consolidated below and above R2 before momentum finally kicked in. I took a partial at the 50% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH and closed at 75% ( mismanaged the last exit - should have been faster on that WRB).
CROX gapped down on earnings Thursday morning and after a lot of offsets, it finally started to look interesting as price and the down sloping ema started to come together. It carved out a NR7, mini gravestone doji at the base of the ORL, so I decided to take a dummy short. I took a partial at the round $50.00 thinking it might catch a bid at this level. However, it continued lower and couldn't even manage to close at $50.00 on the consolidation., before heading lower in the last hour. The Fibonacci extension from the previous day high to the ORL did not exceed 25%, but it didn't have to because there was plenty of money to be made between the ORL and 25% because of the size of the gap.