Thursday, July 03, 2008

Daily PP Reversal - First Solar, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FSLR)

Today was an abbreviated session and I was not expecting to find a good setup/trade. That is often the best frame of mind to be in (not expecting to trade). Given the recent downside action and pre-holiday, I felt the odds favored the long side.

My scanners typically work best later in the morning or mid-day. Given the short session, I worked thru my WL looking for a trade within the first few 15m bars. FSLR appeared to have hammer-like action and the 3rd 15m bar was forming a potential IB. Dialing up 3 time frames (daily, 15m and 5m) told the story. The support was at a significant daily PP. The 15m was well below the 5ema which allowed room for initial upside (per TraderX). Additionally, the small opening gap provided a good upside target if it could get thru the 5ema on the 15m.


In hindsight, I should have taken a partial and held some for 3 WRB or a reversal on the 5m. Much was left on the table.

7 comments:

bl said...

Nice methodology: father(daily) son(30min) holy ghost(5min) and so when are going to find out the sector rotation sequence?! ship fert fin solars oil coal. BTW gamers page had 3WRB drop and reversal: mgm wynn boyd lvs spy

PDT said...

Hey Jim, like the different style you bring to the blog.

In this trade did you said you had a target of the morning gap. Would that be the ORH or the prior days closing day low? Did you exit fully at this target?

Can you explain the "significant" part when you are talking about the daily PP. I only see the low of 6/10 as support. Am I missing something?

Thanks!

QQQBall said...

very appreciative as always for the blog, but you are right - that was a poor exit? you had a wiggle are Gap-R with the spinning top and upper wick on the next candle...enough to get ready to bolt on a close below the prior candle's low, but not enough to bailout. maybe hardest thing in trading is sitting on hands and making market take you out?

still nice trade and good points for a 1/2 day! congrats

Jim said...

BL,

Yes, the trading trinity - seeing confirmation in multiple time frames gives more confidence in a trade.

I trade whatever is moving and hitting my scanners. I am not good at reading the sectors and sector rotation. Thanks for pointing out the gamers.

Jim said...

Hey PDT,

Thanks. I appreciate the encouragement.

I was expecting it to test the gap - the ORL and prev day low were very close given that FSLR is a $250 stock. I exited fully at the close of the 15m bar as shown. The last 5m bar in that 15m bar looked like a potential spinning top (see qqqball's comment). My psychology was affected by the early close. I was thinking I needed to grab profits and get out. Also, the same 15m bar in the QQQQ closed weak.

The 6/10 daily PP was significant in my mind because it was the lowest PP during the last quarter and price had rallied strongly following 6/10.

Jim said...

Hey qqqball,

Thanks for your input. See my comment to PDT. Yes, given my psychology with the early close, I should have taken a partial and managed half to a better exit. I always see room for improvement in my trading, especially with trade management and exits.

Jamie said...

Hey Jim,

Good strategy. Solars are overdue for a bounce. I see that FSLR and most of the solars I'm tracking formed hammer reversal bars on the session. Could lead to follow-up trades early next week.