tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post1095329798706291372..comments2023-11-05T06:41:02.893-05:00Comments on Wall St. Warrior: Technical Picture - Confirmed RallyTJhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13294634341130531371noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-15009409154646171402009-03-16T23:04:00.000-04:002009-03-16T23:04:00.000-04:00JF,I would have preferred capitulation too, but I'...JF,<BR/><BR/>I would have preferred capitulation too, but I'm working with what the markets gave us and taking it one day/week at a time. In the past, I would anticipate too much,or have strong opinions, and ended up missing big moves out of stubbornness. Now, I'm trading what the market dishes out and I'm making more money.TJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13294634341130531371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-12189046386709362832009-03-16T21:43:00.000-04:002009-03-16T21:43:00.000-04:00My guess on this bear market is that we are in the...My guess on this bear market is that we are in the retracement of the after war credit expansion. I think we could go down for a while before the ultimate bottom. <BR/>Big things could happen soon to fixed assets like US treasuries, highier yields on bond = lower valuations for stocks.<BR/><BR/>I wish to see a capitulation before turning more bullish.JF Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02809868376076312020noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-40330996357222847872009-03-16T19:16:00.000-04:002009-03-16T19:16:00.000-04:00Hey Lars,I think most people would agree with you....Hey Lars,<BR/><BR/>I think most people would agree with you.<BR/><BR/>My analysis goes like this: if gold is no longer safe haven against falling market, it is weak which is implied in my analysis. However, gold versus $USD could come into play. We correctly predicted that the dollar would pullback following a fake BO. Now the dollar is oversold and the market overbought so we expect both to retrace to the R-zone 38-62% of the last leg. If the retracements are orderly with lighter volume and they observe the R-zone as support/resistance, we expect the dollar to continue lower which will be a positive for the market.<BR/><BR/>As noted in my weekly post from March 8, I would have preferred a decisive candlestick pattern such as a hammer to mark the bear bottom, because offsets can continue to offset indefinitely. We got an offset and we continue to monitor the market closely for a fake bottom.TJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13294634341130531371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-68929281181481625692009-03-16T17:29:00.000-04:002009-03-16T17:29:00.000-04:00personally gold looks technically bearish to me......personally gold looks technically bearish to me... i wouldn't be surprised if that cracked back underneath that 900 and tested at least 850.<BR/><BR/>as far as the broader market goes, i still haven't seen my signal for a long term bottom. to me this looks like we are entering a downtrend phase after the crash, similar to 1929-33. this is where the true wealth destruction occurs as folks constantly try to buy to bottom.Larry Arndthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10619991912089326987noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-4501076950929752392009-03-15T22:35:00.000-04:002009-03-15T22:35:00.000-04:00Thanks John,Volume was just slightly less than two...Thanks John,<BR/><BR/>Volume was just slightly less than two previous sell-off weeks and well above average, but, you're right it would have a lot better if volume had taken out those two last spikes.TJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13294634341130531371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-11938603436419542692009-03-15T22:28:00.000-04:002009-03-15T22:28:00.000-04:00Fred,Yeah, lots of small HM and that's part of the...Fred,<BR/><BR/>Yeah, lots of small HM and that's part of the reason I'm expecting a shallow retracement. It's important that we don't retrace too sharply on strong volume, otherwise, this is just another technical bounce.TJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13294634341130531371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-46761241798029192552009-03-15T22:20:00.000-04:002009-03-15T22:20:00.000-04:00Nice summary view on things. Volume though, on th...Nice summary view on things. Volume though, on the SPX, was perhaps a bit less than solid during this squirt.johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12712283145624980190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19713238.post-40928505639012965362009-03-15T21:54:00.000-04:002009-03-15T21:54:00.000-04:00A lot of hanging man ....A lot of hanging man ....Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00134496919993056540noreply@blogger.com