Trade of the Day

No Trade of the Day today. I only took one trade today and it took the better part of the session to squeeze out $0.40.

Watch List - BRCM, FFIV

Click on charts for larger views.

BRCM (30 min. view) had a nice rally after the Fed announcement. If it can break through its pivot point resistance area, it may be able to break out of this triangle pattern. We need to see some leadership from the SOX, otherwise today's gains won't have much follow through.

I was long FFIV again this morning right off the open, but now I think we really need to digest this bullish move. The chart above is a 30 minute view of FFIV's price action over the last two months and it has clearly made a solid base, but there's some negative divergence creeping into the OBV, so I'm taking a break. I'd like to see it pull back to $50.00 support area and stay there long enough to consolidate these gains.

Nasdaq Technical Picture

Today's rally resulted in a double top P&F breakout with a new preliminary bullish target of 2320 from today's close of 2174.

The entire session was bullish from this morning's gap up until noon. This was followed by a quiet period of sideways action leading into the much anticipated Fed announcement. But at 2:15 volume took off and so did price. There was no hesitation and the usual volatility following a Fed statement was not evident. Everything moved in the same direction in a very orderly fashion.

The result was a wide range bar which lifted us out our three week trading range on higher volume. The NASDAQ added 62.5 points or 3% on the session. All tech sectors participated and several including the SOX and NWX added 4% on the day. Everything on my screen was green at the end of the session except PALM which reported disappointing earnings AH and is now trading below $17.00. RIMM, on the other hand, is testing $70 after a favorable earnings report. I mentioned in my Trade of the Day post that AAPL is also down AH on unusual stock option activity. It'll be interesting to see which names can hang on to these gains tomorrow. Be on the alert for early winners tomorrow morning as we may get some more quarter end window dressing.

Trade of the Day - Apple Computer Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL

This was my best trade on the Fed announcement. Volume just took off and so did price. You'll notice that in AH trade, AAPL gave back all of its post fed gains due to an announcement concerning stock option grant irregularities.

Watch List - ADBE, CMCSK, MCHP,

ADBE - Bullish hammer reversal bar at key support level.

CMCSK - a bullish engulfing pattern on key pivot point support despite the napping cable guy.

I hate it when the 200 MA gets in the way of a good long entry in the form of overhead resistance. However, MCHP has a lot of bullish signals in play including, John Carter's three consecutive higher closes reversal pattern, as well as, higher volume on bullish bars, and a close above the 20 day EMA.

NASDAQ Technical Picture

Regular readers know that 2100 was a key support target going back to mid-May. Well now its been at least three weeks and it is still in play. So far we've closed below 2100 only on three sessions. Today's NR hammer stick could signal a reversal but everything hinges on Fed Speak tomorrow. The emphasis on Fed Speak tomorrow is all important because of the timing of quarter-end and the traditional fund window dressing that transpires at this time.

Trade of the Day - F5 Networks Inc. NASDAQ: FFIV

As discussed in last night's watch list, we were looking for FFIV to pullback to the $50.00 area which it did on the open. After testing the $50.25 -$50.50 area for most of the morning, I decided to get long for a potential gap fill. The gap was not entirely filled, but I was able to grab almost a full point by this afternoon's close.

Watch List - NIHD, EBAY, FFIV, LRCX

NIHD's low volume bounce does not inspire confidence. Watch for a shorting opportunity on a high volume break of support.

Gbuy, Google's version of Paypal is a percieved threat to EBAY. Next major support level is $25.30.

This is a 30 minute view of FFIV. Our target of $52.50 was met today and now we should get a pullback to support - 1st level $50.00 and 2nd level $47.70.

This is a 15 minute view of LRCX. From the intrday chart, you can see that LRCX gapped up on the open but quickly fell into step with market and pulled back for the rest of the day. Watch to see if gap support (blue lines) holds in the early going. If so, LRCX could attempt to retest recent highs.

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Dominate Ahead of Fed Speak

The Nasdaq carved out a wide range, bearish engulfing bar on higher volume ahead of Fed Speak on Thursday. Led by semis and the networking sectors, the NASDAQ shed 33.4 points, bringing us within 35 points of recent lows. The RSI has not been able to touch 50 during either of the last two consolidation ranges and this bodes well for the bears. Judging from today's action, we could be starting the third wave of selling.

Trade of the Day - BRCM (AMZN)

BRCM was very weak in the pre-market so I decided to short it if it took out yesterday's low. I covered into the close for a 1 pt. gain.


As noted in last night's watch list, AMZN will probably pull back to its MA on the daily view before breaking out of its base. I should have listened to myself. But no, I went long on a break of resistance at $37.20 and about an hour later I was stopped out at $37.08. After the first three bars, volume came back in and I had a strong feeling that this trade would not succeed so I kept a tight stop.

Watch List - AMZN, ENER

AMZN may pull back to its MA before attempting to breakout, however, its worth keeping on the near-term watch list as it has formed a nice base and the ADX crossover is being followed by an upward move in the ADX line.

ENER looks well positioned to breakout of its three day consolidation patter but we need more volume.

NASDAQ Technical Picture

The NASDAQ added 12 points on low volume to help change the blue Monday trend that has taken hold over the last few months. A quick look at the 15 minute view, shows that over the last two sessions we have had a series of higher lows and may be forming a nice bullish base. Although no tech sector made any significant gains today, most ended the session in the green. Today's NDX winners were XMSR, SIRI and CKFR. The big loser was BMET on a subpoena from the Justice dept.'s antitrust division.

Trade of the Day - CkeckFree NASDAQ: CKFR

As per last night's watch list in which I profiled three names which had just made three consecutive higher closes, I decided to play CheckFree (CKFR) because of the three, it was the only one which had breached the down trendline on a closing basis Friday. I placed two buy orders: a buy stop order above Friday's high and a buy limit order on a gap fill as it was gapping up in pre-market. Only the buy stop order was filled as the stock took off on the open on relatively high volume. My target was former support on the daily view and I exited the entire position as soon as the target was hit. CKFR traded slightly higher, but pulled back shortly after the target was met.

This setup came from John Carter's book Mastering the Trade. Three consecutive higher closes signifies a change in direction and he recommends the setup when picking bottoms and vice versa for tops. All three names on the watch list ended the day higher.

Pre-Market - PALM

PALM estimates raised at ThinkEquity ahead of quarterly results - ThinkEquity notes that PALM is scheduled to report its Q4 after the close on Thursday, June 29, and they expect the co to beat their ests. Firm also raises their ests for FY07, saying they expect two new phones to drive improved sell-out through year end. Firm strongly encourages investors to buy the stock at current levels, saying there is significant upside from here to their conservative $27 target.

Watch List - CKFR, PALM, RIMM,

Tonight's Watch List - All three names have had three successive higher closes and could be setting up to break the recent downtrend.

Canada's Oil & Energy Sectors - Merger Speculation May Keep Prices from Pulling Back Too Far

Friday's Anadarko merger news ended the third straight week of losses for Canada's energy rich TSX index.

Producers of oil and gas were the biggest gainers. EnCana Corp., Canada's largest natural-gas company, closed at C$56.35, up 2.66%. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose for the fourth day in a row, climbing C$2.22, or 4.15 percent, to close at C$55.71.

Suncor Energy Inc. rose C$2.54, or 3.18 percent, to C$82.54. The world's largest oil-sands producer was raised to ``buy'' from ``hold'' by analyst Paul Sankey at Deutsche Bank, who wrote in a note that investors can expect ``sustainable long term growth.''


CNQ looks well positioned to break the downtrend line in the very short-term.

SU has some momentum with the bullish gaps, but I don't trust the move because of the low volume. Wait for a pullback or gap fill.

ECA is the most predictable of the three, because of its $50.00 pivot point.

COS.UN is the only play of the four to hold its 200 day MA through the recent downtrend.

Most of these, except COS.UN, trade on the NYSE.

NASDAQ Technical Picture

We ended the week with another low volume, choppy session, and so it doesn't look too promising going into Fed Speak week. Sector wise it was a mixed bag with biotechs leading the way up versus the SOX leading the way down. LRCX, the big NDX loser, really took a tumble on no news. If we fail to hold support of the blue line in the early going next week, I'll be looking for shorting opportunities.

Trade of the Day - FFIV

When yesterday's resistance held as support early this morning, I decided to go long FFIV. I took a 50% profit after 1.2 points and I was stopped out on the balance of the position. With each spike in volume, I got long again but the rest of the day was a roller coaster. We closed at the June 2nd resistance high and I'm sure that FFIV will be on the watch list again next week.

FFIV - Intraday H&S Top?

The intraday chart of FFIV is starting to look like Head and Shoulders Top. Look at the typical volume spikes on the left shoulder formation and then again at the base of the head.

Update Again

FFIV is testing this morning's resistance as support. This test will determine if I will add to my current position or say goodbye.

Update 2:04 - The market is chopping up and FFIV is following the market. I had it on a short leash, so I was stopped out at $50.80. Now its testing mid-day support.

Update

Stopped out of FFIV at $50.64. Wading back in slowly - picked up a few shares at $50.28.

AAPL power scalp was nice too.

Today is a national holiday in Quebec so its nice to be trading from home!

In Play

The FFIV setup finally triggered. When yesterday's resistance held as support, I decided to go long. My entry was $49.50 and I booked 50% of my profit at $50.70. I'm trailing a stop just below the 10 period ema on the five minute view.

Long BOOM on this morning's gap fill at $32.00. I sold 50% of the position after a 1 pt. gain and I may get stopped out on the rest at $32.50.

Charts later.

Setting Up for a Weak Open

We're setting up for a weak open on the Nasdaq. However, a lot of the oil stocks are trading up in pre-market on merger news.

Here is an intraday chart of AAPL. The blue lines represent potential pivot points.

Watch List - ENER, GENZ, AAPL

ENER closed above its 10 day EMA. Next target is the 20 day EMA.

GENZ has had a low volume pullback to its upward sloping trendline. Look for it to resume the trend on higher volume.

AAPL has been trading opposite the market lately. It had a nice move today and has carved out a nice base.

I'm also still bullish on CTXS, FFIV and BRCM.

Grand Prix weekend in Montreal!

It was pretty hard to concentrate on work this afternoon as Jacques Villeneuve took his Grand Prix car out for a spin in the streets of downtown Montreal.

Tonight's watch list will be a little late as I am going out to catch some of the festivities.

NASDAQ Technical Picture

The NASDAQ gave back half of yesterday's gains today. No big surprise here given yesterday's low volume. From a technical perspective, we are still in a trading range so the back and forth is to be expected. The summer effect makes it quite a bit slower and we sometimes have the impression, we aren't going anywhere. This type of trading environment calls for selective trading in order to preserve capital and avoid unnecessary commissions on low probability trade setups.

Trade of the Day - FFIV

The pre-market was weak, so I decided to adjust my trading strategy from a breakout play to a pullback play. I placed two buy orders for FFIV: one at $48.20 (first level of support on the intraday view) and a second order at $47.65 (second level of support). My plan was to get an avergae price without risking missing out onthe trade altogether by choosing too low an entry price. From the chart you can see that only the first was order was filled. I cancelled the second order and placed a sell limit order at the morning gap fill price of $49.20. It worked out very nicely.

Watch List - FFIV, NEW, RIMM, ADBE

Last night's watch list was very bullish and three of my five picks paid off handsomely today. the two laggards, FFIV and NEW are on the watch list again for tomorrow.

FFIV did not trigger today and now we have one of my favourite setups - the three day consolidation breakout pattern. Here is the setup off of the 15 minute chart:

This setup has a very high success rate in an uptrending market. However, since that is not the case at the moment, look for a high volume breakout to keep price above $50.00 right out of the gate. The target is $52.50.

For NEW, I want to buy on a high volume break of the downward sloping trendline on the daily chart. That would roughly look ike this on the 15 view:

RIMM is trading up in after hours and could be a potential long for tomorrow if it holds $63.00 support in the early going. This is a Cramer pick so I'm a little wary. But it has carved out a nice base over the past few days so I'm posting it anyway. A lot could happen between now and the open, so I will evaluate the pre-market carefully before I execute on this one. Here is the 15 minute view of RIMM:


ADBE is trading up in AH on a multi-year distribution agreement with Google. Here is the daily view:

NASDAQ Technical Picture

The NASDAQ added 34 points and carved out a wide bar off of yesterday's spinning top (almost a bullish morning star pattern). Today was an accumlation day, however, volume was below average and this means caution. We touched the 20 day EMA on an intraday basis but couldn't hold it on a closing basis. Today's tech leadership came from internets and semis. $GIN closed above its 20 day EMA but the $SOX did not.

I'm watching the ADX oscillator closely as the -DI closes in on the black ADX line. If it bounces back up like it did in early June, it will be a bearish signal, but if it crosses down, it will leave the door open for a change in overall direction.

Trade of the Day - JCOM

I placed a buy stop order 5 cents above yesterday's high and I was filled on the open. JCOM didn't really do much in the early going, but shortly after 11:00 it started moving up very quickly. When I noticed the euphoric volume spike just before noon, I decided to exit the entire position. Euphoric volume spikes after big moves to the upside, usually foreshadow the end of the move in much the same way as a capitulation volume spike at the end of a steep move down does.

Swing Trade - BRCM

I held 50% of my BRCM position as outlined here last night. When BRCM broke resistance and used it as support, I reloaded to full share size. Going into the last part of the session, I noticed that BRCM would not be able to close above its 20 day MA on the daily chart, so I sold my enitre position.

Nice Day for the Bulls

Last night's watch list was very bullish. Today my screen is covered in green and I'm a happy bull.

Good Trading everyone!

Watch List - BRCM, FFIV, JCOM, CTXS, NEW

I see a lot of bullish setups tonight. Here are some of my favourites. Now if all the other bulls out there are feeling the same way, we might be able to make some real money going long again. Click on the charts to read my notes.