Showing posts with label MACD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MACD. Show all posts

Monday, November 17, 2008

Technical Picture - Snooze Fest (OPEX Week)

A narrow range, low volume snooze fest typical of OPEX week. The key reversal day we talked about on Thursday is all but dead. We needed to see some follow through and we didn't get any. OPEX this week and Thanksgiving next week. Hmm, could be a good time for some vacation.

The VIX looks like it wants to retest the broken trendline. Watching the MACD - will the kiss turn into a crossover?

Negative divergence of the MACD implies weakness which leads us to suspect that the bullish pennant will fail and that the $USD will eventually retrace towards its trendline.

A pullback in the dollar could kick start stocks. Commodities and gold will move higher on dollar weakness, as well as companies which do a large portion of their business abroad.

USD/Commodities Update

The MACD has yet to confirm the bullish pennant BO, so the pattern is suspect.

Energy is forming a symmetrical triangle, but it's not clear which direction it will break. Either way, the coiling of the ADX +- lines foreshadows a big move.

Gold has held up quite well given the strength of the dollar.