Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Gapper Bear Flag - BHP Billiton Ltd. (Public, NYSE:BHP)

BHP was a Briefing gapper. It carved out a bearish flag-like pattern. It wasn't really obvious from the volume that this was a flag. I usually like to see a clearer sign of declining volume. However, the 5 minute time frame (below) was clear in its rejection of price at the declining 20 ema and I decided to take the trade. I took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs and was stopped out when price reversed after carving out a hammer.


OXY set up out a low risk entry at the base of yesterday's high. Once in the trade I wasn't really feeling any momentum and decided to play a textbook Trader-X exit at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH.

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Pre-Market

Futures indicate a lower open for the mkt. There are a number of news stories out of the financial sector this morning. WSJ reported that the downward spiral of a Citigroup (C) hedge fund has caused steep losses for at least three large U.S. banks, with the losses possibly pressuring Citi to give the banks some of their money back, as it has agreed to do for individual investors. Reports this morning say AIG (AIG) is planning to raise $20 bln in capital, sell non-core businesses and expand in foreign mkts. For the second consecutive day, an investment bank cut its ests for Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS), this time at Lehman. Finally, on a more positive note, the Daily Telegraph reported that Barclays (BCS) is considering a takeover bid for a rival and could try to buy an investment bank. Futures had a delayed reaction to this morning's mixed PPI data, before extending their declines just after 8:30ET. April PPI came in at a lower than expected 0.2% m/m (consensus 0.4%) and 6.5% yr/yr (consensus 6.7%), but core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at a higher than expected 0.4% m/m (consensus 0.2%) and 3.0% yr/yr (consensus 2.9%). Dow futures are currently -87; Nasdaq futures are currently -14.5; S&P futures are currently -9.4.

The Bond mkt continued yesterday's choppy trade overnight, showing little direction, but spiked higher following the hotter than expected core PPI numbers. The 10-yr is currently +06/32 to 3.809%... In Commodities, June crude oil ($127.95 +0.90) just rallied to a fresh all-time high of $128.02 this morning... In Europe, growing fears about inflation weighed on mkts as mining and commodities stocks snapped their 4-day winning streak. FTSE is currently -1.9%; DAX is currently -1.3%; CAC is currently -1.6%. In Asia, mkts fell, some sharply, as concerns about inflation and Wall Street's profit taking overnight prompted investors to lock in recent gains. Nikkei closed -0.8%; Hang Seng closed -2.2%; Shanghai Composite closed -4.5%... Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: EXC, FE, PEG and RRI at Credit Suisse, NFLX at Lehman; Downgrades: CECO, COCO, ESI and UTI at BofA; Miscellaneous: Lehman cuts Q2 and 2008 EPS ests for GS and MS, Oppenheimer cuts ests for AXP and COF... On the Earnings calendar, ADI, DY, HPQ, INTU, LTXX, PHHM, PVH and RRGB are confirmed to report today after the close... On the Economic calendar, nothing remains on the schedule for today.

Gapping down in reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: CIMT -16.1% (very light volume), CNTF -14.5%, SMOD -14.5% (very light volume after trading resumed), CSUN -9.0%, GRRF -6.5%, TMA -4.3% (also plans to announce Q1 earnings by June 2, 2008), AVAN -4.2%, HD -3.0%, ITY -2.9%... Select mining stocks showing weakness following Morgan Stanley comments that miners face a 10-20% short-term correction: BBL -4.2%, AAUK -3.3%, RTP -3.2%, BHP -3.1%, RIO -2.1%... Select China names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: PTR -3.2%, SNP -2.8%, HOKU -2.2%, CHL -2.2% (reported slower subscriber growth last month), RCH -1.3%, CEO -1.0%... Other news: SWHC -7.6% (announces public offering of 6,250,000 shares for approx $31.9 mln net proceeds), CCL -2.3% (still checking), WRE -1.8% (announces public offering of 2.3 mln common shares), NUE -1.6% (commences a 25 mln share common stock offering), UDRL -1.5% (files for 5 mln share common stock offering and for resale of up to ~10.7 mln shares common stock by selling stockholders)... Analyst downgrades: COCO -6.4% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), CECO -4.9% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), SEE -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), ACGY -2.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), EMC -2.6% (downgraded to Market Perform at Bernstein), WGOV -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), SYMC -1.1% (removed from Top Picks List at FBR).

Gapping up in reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: NCTY +7.0%, MF +3.5%, ESLT +3.5%, MDT +3.3%... M&A news: JAZ 76.5% (to be acquired by Tower Semiconductor)... Select solar stocks showing modest strength: CSIQ +2.7%, AKNS +2.7%, SOLF +2.1%, ESLR +1.6%, FSLR +1.2%... Other news: ENA +42.5% (the co and IC Bus execute long term agreement; valued in excess of $120 mln), PEIX +7.6% (continued strength following yesterday's 40%+surge higher), SATC +7.5% (receives 10 MW order for a photovoltaic installation in Spain), PRGN +6.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NFLX +5.3% (teams with Roku on player that streams movies directly to the tv; also upgraded to Overweight at Lehman) TNB +4.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AMKR +2.8% (still checking), HALO +2.4% (presents pre-clinical studies on dermal remodeling with HTI-501, a lysosomal proteinase), SBLK +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AZN +1.6% (Seroquel Court hearing brought forward to May 20 - DJ), AMGN +1.6% (announces denosumab osteoporosis study meets primary and all secondary bone mineral density endpoints in Alendronate transition study), GIVN +1.0% (study confirms PillCam COLON's potential as a complement to colonoscopy to increase colo-rectal screenings)... Analyst upgrades: EXC +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse and upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), FCL +1.3% (upgraded to Add at Calyon), NVLS +1.1% (added to US 1 Portfolio List at Merrill), PDS +1.0% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC).

Gapping up: JAZ +82.4%, SBLK +10.9%, PRGN +9.9%, CSUN +7.2%, AMKR +5.6%, TNB +4.3%, AMGN +3.0%, DRYS +2.4%, HALO +2.4%, AZN +1.9%, HD +1.5%... Gapping down: CNTF -14.1%, GRRF -13.0%, TMA -8.7%, RTP -3.2%, BHP -3.1%, CCL -2.3%, NUE -1.6%, WGOV -1.5%.


Courtesy of Briefing.com

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Monday, May 19, 2008

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Hanging Man Confirmed


This morning's rally followed through on last week's bullish momentum as the S&P finally pushed through its 200 DMA, but shortly after lunch the bears put up some defense and the indices sold off rapidly, and on high volume. Technology (cautious comments from SNDK) and the momentum groups (AG/Chem, Solar, and Shipping) paced the retreat.

Friday's hanging man on the NASDAQ was confirmed with a lower close. The S&P failed to close above 200 DMA and the Transports (DOW Theory) hit a new all time high on an intraday basis today. However, the Transports carved out a shooting star and could see some follow through pressure tomorrow.


The Transports have rallied out of an inverse Head & Shoulders base. After 5 waves, the measured move 100% is almost complete. Notice how volume is waning on the last leg up.



We've had three high volume sell-offs in as many weeks, however, except for the first pullback, there's been no follow through as we continue to make higher highs. We need to see a breach and a close below today's lows in order to anticipate further downside corrective action.

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: NCTY +9.5%; DRYS +3.1%... Companies trading down in reaction to earnings: LORL -19.6%; GRRF -13.0%; CNTF -12.7%; AVAN -4.2%; ASFI -1.4%... Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: GNK +3.1% (announces plan to sign time charter for Panamax vessel at a rate of $55,250/day for 35-37.5 months); HALO +2.5% (presents pre-clinical studies on dermal remodeling with HTI-501, a lysosomal proteinase); AMTD +2.4% (reports monthly metrics; client trades up 17% from April 2007, down 3% from March); AMGN +1.8% (announces denosumab osteoporosis study meets primary and all secondary bone mineral density endpoints in Alendronate (FOSAMAX) transition study); CXW +1.2% (announces contract award from the Office of Federal Detention Trustee; construction estimated at cost of $83.5 mln); GIVN +1.0% (announced that a study confirms PillCam COLON's potential as a complement to colonoscopy to increase colo-rectal screenings); FNM 0.0% (ratings removed from CreditWatch; some affirmed, others lowered at S&P)... Companies trading lower in reaction to news: TMA -4.4% (to announce Q1 earnings by June 2, 2008; anticipates it will report a substantial net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2008); NUE -2.0% (commences a 25 mln share common stock offering); CHK -1.6% (announces offering of $800 mln of senior notes); UDRL -1.5% (files for 5 mln share common stock offering and for resale of up to ~10.7 mln shares common stock by selling stockhold); ACTS -1.2% (announced as the exclusive MPR chip provider).


AH courtesy of Briefing.com

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Three Words "Hanging Man Confirmed"

My first two morning shorts only trickled in until the market sold off and at one point I was more than a little frustrated and thought I would likely get stopped out. But once the market reversed I was happy I had them, especially SNDK.


AMZN, from the WL and the Briefing.com gapper list, had great volume so I was happy to jump in as price broke out of a three bar consolidation. My target was 100% Fib. extension of the ORL to the consolidation base. I took a partial after 3 WRBs to lock in some profits.

The next four trades all triggered around the same time plus I had HANS and SNDK on the go. So nothing fancy except for the two big ones, DRYS and AGU, I was just trying and hoping for 3 consecutive red bars, wide or not.

My beloved ESRX went according to plan. It should noted that both HANS and ESRX carved out bullish morning star reversal patterns which did not confirm. This was probably an early warning sign, but at the time I didn't know it. I thought it was midday doldrums - chop chop.

I was scoping out DRYs all day because it is so far extended. I was closely monitoring the E-mini NASDAQ futures as they made a new high just before reversing. DRYS broke down before the Futures confirmed. But there was no head fake on DRYS. I took a partial as price approached Friday's low and put a stop at $110.50 based on the action on the 1 minute chart.


AGU from HCPG's trading list, looked like an inverted C&H. I took a partial at the blue line which was a support and pivot area from late last week, but I guess it wasn't necessary. If I didn't have so many open positions at the same time, I might have done better with this one, but it's good. I'm very happy with it.

GRMN was gap down and just before it fell down, I was anticipating, it might turn into a long. Then it carved out a NR hanging man.

I've been anticipating a sell-off for some time now. If you are reading my NASDAQ technical posts, today's sell-off was no surprise, and hopefully you were able to profit in a big way.

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Pre-Market

Futures indicate a flat open for the stock market. The top story is Microsoft's (MSFT) announcement yesterday that it is in talks to make a transaction with Yahoo! (YHOO), but the transaction does not involve acquiring all of the co. In other news, Citi lowered its Q2 ests on investment banks Goldman Sachs (GS), Lehman Brothers (LEH) and Morgan Stanley (MS) to reflect the difficult mkt environment. Dow is currently -3; Nasdaq is currently +2.8; S&P is currently +0.2.

The Bond mkt are trading with a modest bid this morning, though off its best level from overnight. The 10-yr is currently +07/32 to 3.816%... In Commodities, June crude oil ($126.75 +0.46) fell short of Friday's all-time high of $127.93 this morning, touching $127.77 before pulling back modestly... In Europe, mkts performed a U-turn, reversing early losses to move higher on strong commodities stocks. FTSE is currently +0.5%; DAX is currently +0.4%; CAC is currently +0.5%. In Asia, mkts closed modestly higher as a spike in base metals and crude oil prices sparked a rally in commodity issues. Note: Mkts in India, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand are closed for holidays. Nikkei closed +0.4%; Hang Seng closed +0.5%; Shanghai Composite closed -0.5%... Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: ALK and JBLU at JPMorgan, NCC and TXN at Citi, YHOO at Needham; Downgrades: AKAM at Citi, CAL at JPMorgan; Miscellaneous: Citi lowers its Q2 ests on GS, LEH and MS... On the Earnings calendar, GRRF, CNTF, DRYS and NCTY are the only cos confirmed to report today after the close... On the Economic calendar, Apr Leading Indicators (consensus 0.0%; prior 0.1%) are due out at 10:00ET.

Gapping down in reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: NEXC -40.7% (very light volume following resumption of trading), LOW -3.6%, CPB -1.0%... Other news: MPG -8.6% (confirms it has replaced President and CEO with Nelson Rising), BCE -7.9% (NY Times reports BCE buyout is in trouble), RBS -7.6% (following weakness in overseas trading after target cut at tier 1 firm), FEED -4.8% (Barron's comments on AgFeed consultant), ETFC -3.7% (sells stake in India-based financial services firm - NY Post), MTW -3.7% (revises its offer to acquire Enodis plc for $2.4 bln), GNK -3.3% (commences public offering of primary and secondary shares of its common stock), UN -3.0% (still checking), HD -2.1% (down in sympathy with LOW), RTP -1.6% and BHP -1.5% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst downgrades: TRA -4.1% (initiated with Sell at tier 1 firm), HOLX -3.4% (downgraded to Hold at Soleil), AKAM -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), GRMN -2.0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), AEO -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform at FBR), CAL -1.6% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), BUCY -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), JOYG -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc), DIS -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Pali Research).

Gapping up in reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: PWRD +2.2%... Select solar stocks showing continued strength: SOLF +10.0%, CSUN +8.5%, ASTI +6.0%, JASO +3.7%, ESLR +2.5%, YGE +2.3%, SPWR +2.1% (announces third Solar-Cell Fab), FSLR +1.2%... Select stocks showing strength with slightly higher spot prices: GOLD +2.7%, AUY +2.1%, AEM +2.0%, ABX +1.5%... Other news: MTZ +11.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BTRX +8.9% (SAC Capital discloses 6.3% stake in 13G filing), CPST +6.0% (still checking), SCMP +4.6% (New AMITIZA phase III studies demonstrated overall symptom improvement in adult women with irritable bowel syndrome with constipation), BIDZ +2.1% (acquires $23.9 million lot of finished jewelry from bankruptcy auction), AZN +1.9% (still checking), PKG +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NOK +1.6% (wins contract from TIM in Brazil to supply wireless network - Bloomberg), EMC +1.6% and INTC +1.2% (still checking)... Analyst upgrades: NCC +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), AMZN +3.1% (hearing coverage assumed with Buy at tier 1 firm), TXN +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), CPWR +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), AAUK +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).

Gapping up
: MTZ +11.7%, BTRX +8.9%, PWRD +3.8%, AMZN +3.1%, PKG +1.6%, EMC +1.6%, ABX +1.5%, YHOO +0.8%... Gapping down: RBS -5.7%, TRA -3.2%, LOW -3.2%.

Citigroup lowers their 2Q08 estimates on GS, LEH and MS

Courtesy of Briefing.com

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Sunday, May 18, 2008

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Hanging Man to End Bullish Week



The stock indices followed up on Thursday's strong performance with a move to new multi-month highs in opening trade Friday but gains were extremely minimal with the S&P 500 and Dow stalling shy of their 200 day sma, before reversing for some morning profit taking. The pullback retraced close to 62% of the previous day's range before stabilizing ahead of a late day move back to recent range tops. This action carved out a hanging man on the NASDAQ. Hanging men need to be confirmed, so we need to see a close below before we can anticipate a pullback.

That said there are some early warning signs that lead us to believe that a correction is likely at these levels. We see some negative divergence of the RSI and MACD on the intraday chart. Heavier volume during recent intraday profit taking periods. A low fear factor as measured by the VXN volatility index which is testing a key pivot point as highlighted on the chart. This level marked the most recent peaks in October 2007. Other tell tale signs are a general lack of participation in recent bullish action by NASDAQ leaders, as well as financials on the S&P. Also the ratio of stocks carving out bearish engulfing bars vs. bullish engulfing bars: 87:13 on the NAZ and 67:6 on the NYSE.

Companies reporting earnings the week of May 19th-23rd include: Monday: CPB, ELON, EXM, LOW, PWRD, GRRF, CNTF, DRYS, and NCTY... Tuesday: AZO, CSUN, DRS, ESLT, HD, MDT, MF, SKS, SPLS, TGT, UNFI, ADI, HPQ, INTU, LTXX, PHHM, PVH, and RRGB... Wednesday: BJ, BRC, BWS, CHRS, EV, QXM, RTLX, ROST, SOLF, TLB, TNP, TWB, BRS, CHINA, CTRN, CSC, CPWM, GYMB, HOTT, NAPS, NTES, NTAP, PERY, PETM, CRM, SMTC, SNPS, WSTL, and ZL... Thursday: ANN, BKS, BONT, PLCE, CMCO, DKS, FLO, FRO, GME, GSOL, HRL, MPR, NWY, OPXT, PDCO, SAFM, SFL, SSI, SMRT, STP, TECD, BKE, TTC, ZLC, ARO, ARUN, BBOX, CA, DITC, GPS, HIBB, HRAY, LTON, NDSN, PSUN, VRGY, and ZUMZ... Friday: SKIL

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: GENC -50.1%, USS -35.4%, CRZ -28.7%, CWCO -22.4%, NXTM -20.9%, CORS -19.3%, SURW -19.0%, YTEC -18.6%, WSPI -17.3%, PLA -17.2%, RSOL -17.0%, MCBC -16.8%, DSL -16.6%, RHD -15.9%, MSC -15.8%, GSI -15.6%, AEA -15.5%, LCAV -15.2%, TIGR -15.2%, WNR -14.3%, PHHM -13.9%, EXAR -13.9%, PFBC -13.9%, IMP -13.8%, ASPM -13.7%, BBW -13.3%, CRYP -13.3%.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: IOMI 140.4%, RCH 97.2%, PDO 94.8%, KUN 57.5%, CPSL 56.7%, CNET 48.8%, RADN 44.1%, SOLF 42.6%, CAAS 39.2%, CSIQ 37.1%, NCOC 36.3%, CSUN 36.0%, FSYS 34.1%, TDS.S 33.9%, SOL 33.8%, TDS 33.3%, LACO 32.5%, CVLT 29.2%, EDS 29.0%, VQ 28.9%, OSTK 28.4%, AVAN 27.2%, ZOLT 26.8%, EXM 25.7%, CYD 25.4%, FSIN 25.3%, MGAM 25.3%, NED 24.3%, DK 24.2%, NSPH 24.1%, VIT 24.0%, PAL 23.9%, APPY 23.7%, ULTR 23.7%, NLS 23.6%, ELON 23.6%, VISN 23.5%, GU 23.0%, KAZ 22.8%, CVI 22.2%, NILE 22.2%, CGRB 22.0%, LCRD 21.4%, PBH 20.8%, NOVN 20.8%, PSS 20.6%, OPTT 20.3%.

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Friday, May 16, 2008



Diamond Mine by Blue Rodeo circa 1989. I was never a big fan of this Canadian band, but this song and the album of the same name, stand out.

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Dummy Trades - Follow the Market

Today I tried to stay in tune with the market as much as possible instead of putting my personal bias to work on the short side. As you can see from the E mini NASDAQ futures chart above, the easy money in the early going was on the short side. We gapped up and retraced 62% of the move from yesterday's low to the ORH. After that it was back filling until the late session rally back up to yesterday's highs.

My first trade was ESRX break of inside bar. Cover as price retests yesterday's low.

The next trade was LEH. This time, I tried to get in as close as possible to the whole $ number because it lined up with yesterday's afternoon base. This gave me a tighter stop as there was no IB anyway. I took a partial as price fell into the next level base from yesterday and was stopped out on the balance.

HANS was a break of 2 IBs . Small move again today but less chop. Maybe the third trade will be the charm as the daily chart is still lining up for a bear flag BO.

I traded exclusively my own WL today, except SNDA which was a carryover gapper from yesterday. This was an inverse C&H pattern which extended the full 100%. I took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs.

GRMN has been in rally mode for several days and I finally decided to join in. I entered on a base within the bigger C&H pattern. I exited at the 100% Fib. extension level thinking that was the end of the move. The 100% level was just pennies away from the daily 50 SMA and I was sure that it would provide resistance as it hasn't been touched since December 2007. Yeah, sometimes I over analyze. In hindsight, GRMN had just come out of a four bar consolidation, so it should have been good for 3 WRBs as opposed to the one that I exited on. Next time I'll partial out instead of anticipating.



DRYS - 2 NRIB s- Took a partial after 1 pt. as price came into resistance and stopped out on the balance.

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Pre-Market

Futures indicate a modestly higher open for the mkt. Overall, it has been a very slow news morning, but futures did catch a slight bid following much better than expected housing data. April Housing Starts jumped 8.2% from the prior month to 1.032 mln units (consensus 939K), while Building Permits jumped 4.9% to 978K units (consensus 915K). This is an encouraging report from an economic standpoint as it points to signs of stabilization in the housing mkt. Note: Today is May options expiration, which typically leads to higher trading volume for the day. Dow is currently +34; Nasdaq is currently +2.3; S&P is currently +4.2.

Following yesterday's strong gains, the Bond mkt is seeing some profit taking, which accelerated following the better than expected housing data. The 10-yr is currently -18/32 to 3.883%. Looking ahead, Treasury Secretary Paulson speaks on the U.S. housing and credit markets at 12:00ET... In Commodities, June crude oil ($126.74 +2.62) has now recouped all off its declines following yesterday's aggressive midday sell-off and has rallied to a fresh all-time high of $127.43... In Europe, energy stocks and banks rallied during a strong morning for European mkts. FTSE is currently +1.2%; DAX is currently +1.6%; CAC is currently +1.0%. In Asia, mkts turned mixed in cautious trade, with the Nikkei slipping into negative territory after advancing earlier on stronger than expected economic growth, while BHP Billiton's rally lifted the S&P/ASX amid speculation about Chinese interests buying into the world's largest miner. Nikkei closed -0.2%; Hang Seng closed +0.4%; Shanghai Composite closed -0.4%... Notable pre-market Calls include Upgrades: APC at Lehman; Downgrades: SNDK at JMP Securities, URBN at Lehman; Miscellaneous: Merrill Lynch resumes several gaming stocks: IGT (Buy), LVS (Sell), MGM (Neutral), WMS (Sell), WYNN (Buy)... On the Earnings calendar, no cos are confirmed to report today after the close... On the Economic calendar, preliminary May Michigan Sentiment (consensus 62.0; prior 62.6) is due out at 10:00ET.

Gapping down in reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
: ATEA -27.1%, GSI -19.3%, QTM -10.1%, SPRD -9.6%, KONG -9.5%, GA -7.9%, EXAR -7.9%, MNT -7.2%, CLNE -5.5%, BZH -4.7%, CPWR -2.7%, KSS -1.0%... Other news: DVAX -7.6% (TOLAMBA chamber study misses primary endpoint; sees total pro forma revs for 2008 unchanged in the range of $42 to $46 mln), ALD -5.7% (co filed a Form 497 after the close last night related to 7.5 mln share offering as part of previously announced shelf offering), RBS -4.5% (Berkshire pulls out of RBS auction - Financial Times), SNY -4.2% (still checking), LWAY -4.0% (FDA shutting down co's seafood, cream cheese ops - DJ), LPL -4.0% (LG Display sinks after Lehman downgrade - Reuters.com), ATN -3.5% (prices public offering of common units), AMR -2.8% (FAA looks into American's inspections - WSJ), OSIP -2.8% (still checking), ASTI -1.8% (prices its offering of 3.8 mln common shares at $14.00/share)... Analyst downgrades: RF -3.3% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill), CNQR -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), JCP -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), ALB -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), LVS -1.6% (resumed with Sell at Merrill), RAI -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), URBN -1.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman and downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), SNDK -1.2% (downgraded to Underperform at JMP), HCN -1.1% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan).

Gapping up in reaction to strong earnings/guidance
: CPSL +26.0%, NED +21.0%, SUTR +17.9%, AAP +9.7% (also authorizes $250 mln share repurchase to replace existing program), UTSI +4.6%, BMC +4.3%... M&A news: CHIP +21.7% (Stanley Works agrees to acquire Xmark from VeriChip for $45 mln cash)... Select biotech/pharma stocks showing strength with 2008 ASCO abstracts filed last night: PCOP +18.2% (investigational therapy PS433540 achieves 'statistically significant' reductions in blood pressure in hypertensive patients), MEDX +7.0%, AZN +2.0% (Array Biopharma and AstraZeneca announce new Ph. 2 development plans for the investigational anti-cancer drug AZD6244), DNA +2.0% (provided an overview of several clinical studies of Avastin), LLY +1.7%... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: LMC +6.5% AAUK +2.7% DROOY +2.5% RTP +1.8%, GLD +1.5%, GOLD +1.4%... Other news: HOKU +15.2% (announces that the Public Utilities Commission approves Hoku Solar-Hawaiian electric contract for photovoltaic project), AMLN +6.1% (Icahn discloses new 6.3 mln share stake), KMX +3.9% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses increased stake in co), ENI +3.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NOK +2.8% (still checking), SAN +2.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SBUX +2.1% (Peltz's Triac reports stake in Starbucks - Bloomberg), ALU +1.9% (still checking), BP +1.4% and TOT +1.4% (still checking on anything specific), KFT +1.2% (Berkshire Hathaway discloses increased stake in co)... Analyst upgrades: RSH +5.0% (upgraded to Buy and added to Conviction Buy List at tier 1 firm), IGT +1.4% (resumed with Buy at Merrill).


Courtesy of Briefing.com

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Thursday, May 15, 2008

NASDAQ Technical Picture - 200 DMA Captured on Closing Basis

Okay, so we made another new high and held into the close to take out the 200DMA. Yesterday's bearish rant was foiled early in the session when we failed to confirm yesterday's shooting star. We chopped our way back up after testing yesterday's low as support early in the session. Again, we got relatively little participation from large cap tech leaders AAPL, RIMM, GOOG and BIDU. Instead the leaders of today's NASDAQ 100 rally were losers such as NVDA and FMCN. Today's higher volume is courtesy of pre-options expiration, not to confused with bullish momentum. Enough said, the real test of the strength of this rally will be resistance from former support.

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: NED +19.5%; SUTR +16.4%; UTSI +4.6%; BMC +4.3%; JWN +3.4%; PDEX +1.8%... Companies trading down in reaction to earnings: GSI -17.7%; ATEA -15.3%; KONG -14.1%; PRD -10.4%; QTM -10.1%; CLNE -8.4%; EXAR -7.9%; MNT -5.6%; GA -5.4%; NCOC -5.1%; ATN -4.1%; ONSM -3.2%; CPWR -2.7%; KSS -1.9%; TBUS -1.5%... Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: HOKU +15.2% (announces that the Public Utilities Commission approves Hoku Solar-Hawaiian electric contract for photovoltaic project); AMLN +5.6% (Icahn discloses new 6.3 mln share stake); PENN +2.5% (transaction secures approval from the West Virginia Racing Commission)... Companies trading lower in reaction to news: LWAY -18.4% (FDA shutting down co's seafood, cream cheese ops -- DJ); EFDT -3.5% (announces commencement of $35 mln common stock offering); LCC -2.0% (Fleet Service employees ratify unified contract); MGAM -1.5% (reports installed base of player terminals and product mix at April 30, 2008); PNM -1.1% (to issue 9.4 mln shares to complete settlement of equity-linked units purchase contra); YHOO -0.4% (responds to Carl Icahn's intention to nominate candidates for election to Yahoo!'s board of directors).

AH courtesy of Briefing.com

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