Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Gapper Retracement Trade of the Day - DryShips Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:DRYS)


The markets gapped up on the open and almost the entire WL gapped as well. DRYS gapped up and rallied in the first hour. It carved out a bullish flag at the 38% Fib retracement of the ORL to the early swing high. The trigger bar was a doji hammer NR7, so I decided to get long. I took a partial at the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day low to the ORH. Shortly after, price started to retrace, so I allowed for a 38% retracement of the last leg up. Eventually price took out the previous high, but I was getting antsy because I had to fold ahead of the 2:00 release of the FED beige book.

NVDA - 2 inside bars on declining volume. It started off very nicely but the retest of the ORH turned into a retracement so I bailed.

Retracement Trade of the Day - JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (ADR) (Public, NASDAQ:JASO)


JASO (Nov. 27th) was a non-gapper retracement setup based on weakness in the energy sector.

From the 15 minute chart above we can see that JASO carved out a lower high in the opening range, followed by an inside bar and sharp fall into S2 pivot point support. From there it retraced approx. 38% of the move from the ORH to the morning swing low on declining volume, carving out a bearish flag type pattern culminating in a star-like candle with a long upper shadow and a lower high. Notice how price could not close above the downsloping 5 period ema. Short as price breaches the flag pattern.

I placed my Fibonacci extension lines from the ORH (non-gapper) to the morning swing low and my preliminary target was the 38% extension, at which point I booked a partial profit. I usually tighten the stop to the preceding WR red bar, but have been stopped out prematurely on a few trades lately, so now I am allowing for a retest of former support (morning swing low).

After tagging the 38% Fib. extension, it consolidated for a lengthy period before continuing lower. Once volume started to pick up again, it became obvious that a retest of the Nov. 12th low ($47.60) was the target.

Key criteria for the 38% retracement setup.



  1. Look for stocks that gap above or below the previous day's range. For non-gapper stocks, look for trending stocks.
  2. After a decisive move in the direction of the gap or trend, look for a 38% retracement on declining volume. The retracment could be a flag type pattern or it might carve out a candlestick reversal pattern after the retracement.
  3. The move back towards the swing high(low) is usually slow but orderly. Once the previous intraday high(low) is taken out, look for price and volume expansion.

Monday, November 26, 2007

Gapper Retracement Trade of the Day - Tesoro Corporation (Public, NYSE:TSO)

TSO was a gapper from the Briefing.com list. After a 38% Fibonacci retracement of the ORH to the morning swing low, TSO stalled. Short after price reverses and takes out 5 period ema. These types of setups usually move slowly until the swing low is taken out, at which point, it should accelerate as TSO did. I covered at the 50% Fib. extension of the previous day high to the ORL.

The gapper retracement setup should retrace approx. 38% which is a normal retracement on declining volume. After the swing low is taken out, look for volume to accelerate.

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Dummy Gapper trade of the Day - EchoStar Communications (NASDAQ: DISH)

Monday Nov. 19th - DISH caught my eye from the Briefing.com gapper list because it's also a WL stock. It gapped up on an M&A chatter and carved out a WOR with a long upper shadow. Price held support of the 200 SMA (red line) as it consolidated sideways in the upper half of the OR. As price and the upward sloping 5 period ema came together, it printed NR7 (price and volume contraction ahead of expansion). I entered long on a B&B setup above the blue line. I moved my stop up aggressively in order to preserve profits and I was stopped out on the first sign of weakness.

From the 5 minute chart below, notice how DISH carved out a higher low on the second pullback from the base.

Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Canadian Solar Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CSIQ)

CSIQ was an earnings gap from the Briefing.com gapper list. Not sure where they came up with the name as this is a Chinese co., not Canadian. Anyway, after gapping up, it traded sideways until price and the rising 5 period ema came together. After carving out a NRB on very low volume, price started to expand. I went long before it took out the ORH - mini B&B or a base within a base. Once the ORH was taken out, it ran up quickly to the 50% Fibonacci extension level of the previous day low to the ORH. I locked in a partial and I was stopped out on the balance as price started to retrace following a star with a long upper shadow.

Tuesday, November 13, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Technical Bounce


Market volatility decreased sharply today as the equities staged a technical bounce. The VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) closed -6.99 (-22.5%) to 24.10, while the tech-focused VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) closed -5.23 (-15.0%) to 29.71. The CBOE put/call ratio closed at 1.21, indicating more active put trading than call trading. The TRIN ended the session under 0.50 (0.32) which bodes well for continuation tomorrow.


Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Nash-Finch Company (Public, NASDAQ:NAFC)

I ran a momentum scan midday and found NAFC. The scan looks for NASDAQ stocks trading at 20% higher volume and 10% higher price than the previous day. Since I run this scan late in the morning, I'm looking for a normal retracement from the morning swing high to set up a second leg. I define a normal retracement as 38% from the ORL to the morning swing high. The other criteria to look for is lower volume on the retracement (higher volume is indicative of a reversal) and that price does not breach the rising 20 period ema on the retracement.

NAFC had an orderly retracement and stopped at the 38% Fib level, however, it didn't carve out an obvious candlestick reversal pattern, so I waited until price took out the previous red bar before entering long. I took a partial as price retested the morning swing high and held the balance for an additional 38% Fib. extension.


CAL was a play on lower oil. After gapping open it retraced and swung back above the ORH on a WR bullish bar then printed 2 inside bars in the upper range of the WRB, setting up a low risk long.

Monday, November 12, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - No Defence from Bulls



CBOE Put/Call ratio reading below 1.00 suggests more active call buying than put trading.

VXN volatility Index is testing the August highs.

The late day slide left the NASDAQ Comp, down as much as 8.5% over the last four days alone (Nasdaq 100 -11%) and sitting just above its 200 sma. The aggressive nature of this decline has created a deeply oversold posture but the short term pattern suggests potential for further weakness into Tuesday unless we see some sustained gains back above today's close in early trade.

Today's movement came from higher than avg volume with decliners outpacing advancers (1250/1787) with new lows outpacing new highs (58/267).

Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Up: OWW +8.8%; HINT +6.5%; BOBE +4.3%; ESE +3.1%; JOBS +3.0%; BIDZ +2.7%; FACE +2.6%. Trading Down: SNUS -8.0%; CSR -2.7%; RWC -1.1%; WX -1.0%.

Other News:

Trading Up:
WAB +4.1% (Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB) will replace Florida Rock Industries (FRK) in the S&P MidCap 400); IAG +2.5% (announces appointment of Gordon Stothart as Chief Operating Officer); CTS +2.3% (announces realignment of operations and workforce reduction); BRE +1.7% (BRE Properties will replace United Rentals in the S&P MidCap 400); HALO +1.3% (added to Nasdaq Biotech Index); NTG +1.2% (to acquire Norwegian separator technology co, ConSepT AS; The transaction is expected to be accretive to earnings); EAT +1.1% (signs co investment deal with CMR); ADCT +1.1% (announces agreement to acquire Century Man Communication for $55 mln; expected to be dilutive to GAAP earnings per share in the first year or two of ops)... Trading Down: ADBE -3.2% (names Shantanu Narayen Chief Executive Officer); ALTH -1.9% (initiates study of RH1 in patients with advanced solid tumors or non-hodgkin's lymphoma); EBHI -1.0% (announces key executive appointments).


DNA for OSIP rumor making the rounds. OSIP one of the few bullish charts on my radar.

Dummy Trade of the Day - NVIDIA Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVDA)

The first chart is the daily time frame for NVDA. The blue lines highlight the pivot points. The upper line is positioned on the pivot low from Friday and Oct. and the lower blue line marks the pivot high from July. Once the pivots were taken out, NVDA set up a nice short as we can see from the 15 minute chart below. The target was the green line above around $30.40.


After taking out the first PP, NVDA consolidated in the lower half of the previous WRB. Price could not regain the lost PP and the third consolidation bar was bearish. I shorted a break of $32.00 and took a partial as price approached $31.00. NVDA consolidated at the base of S2 (red line) for a lengthy period before continuing lower. It surpassed the target into the close on accelerating volume.


The chart above is the TSX chart for POT - very similar to the NYSE chart. POT opened very weak and as it was consolidating the first leg down, started printing lower highs leading into a NRIB which set up the perfect short. The BO bar was WR and closed on its lows, taking out the morning swing low. I was looking for three WRBs, but price started to consolidate after only two, so I took a partial. I was stopped out on the balance when POT rallied back up to retest the morning swing low (bummer).

Both NVDA and POT are watch list stocks. POT was also an HCPG pick from last night.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bears Own It



Although down substantially from the previous two sessions, the markets were hit again in the early going amid additional credit issues/write downs (WB, BCS) and a disappointing outlook in technology from QCOM. The averages slipped under Thursday's lows and attempted to pick themselves up but were met with some aggressive selling into the close ahead of the banking long weekend. Still, the Comp held at the 50% retracement of the Aug-Oct rally at 2624 (session low 2624), while the S&P 500 stabilized near the 62% retracement at 1449 (session low 1448.51).

A bounce in the recent market laggards such as Finance, Banking, Housing Insurance and Broker helped pace the way during the attempted rebound . Unfortunately, the buy side interest was limited given the size of the drop off of Tuesday highs and going into a long weekend.

Sectors weighing on the action included: Retail -3.2%, Software -3%, Tobacco -3%, Computer-Hardware -2.8%, Internet -2.8%, Networking -2.7%, Airline -2.7%, Steel -2.6% Chemical -2.3%, Restaurant -2%, and Transports -2%. The weak close trimmed the gainers list which included: Disk Drive +1.7%, Housing +1.3%, Insurance +0.5%, Bank +0.4% and Casino +0.4%. Despite closing near sessions lows, the extended posture of the technicals suggests the potential for a technical bounce early next week.


Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include:
LEAP -71.3%, MNTA -58.4%, NSTK -56.1%, KNXA -38.8%, CLWR -37.6%, EBS -37.6%, PRGX -36.9%, HDNG -36.4%, BID -34.7%, NAHC -33.4%, GVHR -32%, MTZ -31.8%, DHX -30.3%, SAM -30%, AMRI -29.3%, ZUMZ -29.2%, ABH -29.2%, CCRT -29.1%, ARII -29.1%, DTPI -29%, PRS -28.7%, HANS -28.3%, IQW -28.2%, PRKR -28.2%, LLNW -27.6%, CISG -26.8%, EJ -26.8%, DSX -26.7%, MDRX -26.6%, IIG -26.2%, PCS -26.2%, ACAD -25.9%, MALL -25.7%, WX -25.3%, NED -25.1%, CTB -24.3%.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: RSTO 122.8%, DIVX 42.7%, MFLX 34.4%, AGO 34.4%, SPC 32.2%, AFR 25.7%, RWT 25.4%, KND 25.4%, BSMD 24.5%, CBK 22.8%, VCI 22.8%, WCG 21.7%, TRLG 21.6%, HL 21.2%, GYMB 19.3%, HMN 19.1%, RAS 18.4%, PBR 17.8%, MVL 17.4%, BR 17%, BIOS 16.7%, AIXG 16.6%, ABK 16.8%, CEVA 16.5%, EXAS 16.1%, ERES 16%, REW 15.9%, PBR.A 15.9%, BRS 15.9%, PMI 15.7%, PSPT 15.7%, RAMR 15.7%, ONXX 15.7%, RDN 15.7%, MTG 15.3%, TXCO 15.3%, MBT 15.3%, ENER 15.1%, PCLN 15%, ESLR 14.9%.

NYSE October short interest highlights:

Earlier this week NYSE released its October short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. According to Bloomberg, the stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float include: BZH 91%; WCI 77%; HOV 72%; IMB 59%; TOA 59%; FED 56%; TWP 54%; BHS 52%; SPF 52%; AXR 51%; DSL 50%; G 46%; MHO 44%; MTH 44%; HEI 42%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-September to mid-October, are as follows: XJT's short interest rose to 25% of the float from 12%; RDN is up to 24% from 14%; PFB up to 22% from 13%; VMW up to 35% from 26%; CMG up to 36% from 26%; HAR up to 9% from 1%; SPF up to 52% from 44%; SCA up to 14% from 7%; HCR up to 16% from 10%; IMB up to 59% from 54%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid- September to mid-October are as follows: BZH's short interest dropped to 91% from 99%; MA down to 14% from 19%; TOA down to 59% from 64%; ORA down to 8% from 12%; BIG down to 28% from 32%; AUY down to 2% from 5%; NCS down to 14% from 17%; MMC down to 3% from 6%; GWW down to 7% from 10%; VSE down to 15% from 17%.

NASDAQ October short interest highlights:

Earlier this week NASDAQ released its October short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. According to Bloomberg, the stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float include: USNA 106%; CCRT 75%; CONN 69%; GLBC 68%; MDTL 64%; NTRI 57%; TRLG 56%; CORS 54%; JOSB 50%; TGIC 49%; PRAA 45%; RATE 44%; CHNR 44%; FTEK 44%; BKUNA 43%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-September to mid-October, are as follows: CHNR's short interest rose to 44% of the float from 14%; LLNW is up to 17% from 5%; WBMD up to 34% from 22%; ATHN up to 18% from 6%; NTRI up to 57% from 46%; INFN up to 20% from 9%; HNSN up to 26% from 15%; CALM up to 30% from 22%; EFUT up to 30% from 22%; STAR up to 9% from 1%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid-September to mid-October are as follows: COMV's short interest dropped to 11% from 35%; HINT down to 20% from 32%; QNTA down to 0% from 8%; CONN down to 69% from 75%; PRGX down to 2% from 8%; EEFT down to 15% from 19%; WERN down to 24% from 28%; MNTA down to 36% from 40%; ITMN down to 16% from 20%; CCRT down to 75% from 79%.

Trade of the Day - Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)

A disappointing earnings report sent CROX into a free fall. Once it closed below its 200 DMA on the daily, it wasn't able to recapture it on a closing basis, carving out two narrow range inside bars (NRIBs) on declining volume. Despite being oversold the NRIBs in the lower half of the previous WRB were signalling more selling to come - CROX is a WL stock and it was a HCPG pick as well.


As you can see from the 15 minute timeframe above, CROX didn't waste any time on Thursday. The second bar manages to hold support on a closing basis, but the third bar closes into S2 (red line). The fourth bar retests former support, but prints a long upper shadow signalling a failure. I shorted a break of the fourth bar low as the down sloping 5 period ema was in very close proximity. I took a partial after three WRBs and covered the balance after it reversed sharply on higher volume.

On Friday CROX set up another trade, this time a bullish flag BO. I took a partial as price rallied into the down sloping 50 MA and exited the balance when resistance at the blue line held on the first test.

The above chart is the Canadian RIMM chart on the TSE for Thursday which is almost identical to the NASDAQ chart except for price.

I was looking to short on a break of a bearish flag, but it didn't break on the fourth bar as planned so I waited thinking it might print a few inside bars. Instead it went into offset mode which was a bit confusing especially with a green hammer. However, the green hammer didn't follow through and was offset a while later with a red hanging man. I shorted as price confirmed and broke below the hanging man and locked in some profit after three WRBs. The rest of the trade was text book - keep moving stop just above previous bar high.

Thursday, November 08, 2007

Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Garmin Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:GRMN)


GRMN gapped down on earnings (Briefing.com list) and carved out a bearish flag (2 inside bars on declining volume). Short on break of third bar low with a partial as price approaches S2 (red line). Price consolidated sideways in a narrow range just under S2 for close to an hour before continuing lower. I covered the balance as price approached the round $ number $90.00.
The key takeaway here is that GRMN tried to recapture the previous day's lower range in the early going but it failed. Once it took out Monday's low there was virtually no support until $87.00.

Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Nortel Networks Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:NT)

NT was an earnings gap that took out the ORH on the next bar. Eventually it carved out a base & break setup at the early swing high (almost a C&H) and rallied into the close along with the markets. The key take away on this type of setup is the orderly retracement on declining volume and the higher lows leading into the late day BO. After a big thrust like this one on the open, price needs plenty of time to consolidate the move so you need a lot of patience before the second leg up develops.

Because of the base, I place my Fib extension from the previous day low to the base as opposed to ORH. The ORH loses its significance once it has been taken out on a closing basis.

Monday, November 05, 2007

Trade Analysis - DaVita Inc. (Public, NYSE:DVA)

The DVA trade above failed when the 7th bar could not recapture the 20 ema on a closing basis. The doji like stick with long upper wick foreshadowed further weakness. As soon as price moved below the doji, it was time to scratch the trade.

The blue line at the intra-day pivot P is a good base. The ORL on Friday on one side and the two intra-day pivots from underneath create a solid base. If price moves back up to the base tomorrow, it might offer a better opportunity.


Just wanted to follow-up on CROX which sold off again today. I think its oversold and if price can regain the lower blue line and the 50MA (green), it should rally back up to $50.00

Dummy Trade of the Day - athenahealth, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:ATHN)

I traded ATHN on Friday and mentioned in my post that this was a potential BO candidate. Hope you guys added it to your WL.

Despite market weakness, ATHN was a momentum continuation play as it took out its daily pivot high and quickly rallied up to R2, paused briefly, before extending further. Midday it retraced 38% of the move from the ORL to the morning swing high - 38% is a normal retracement and often sets ups a second leg.

Sunday, November 04, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bulls Fight Back

Technically, we have a potential hammer reversal, however, there is a black cloud over the market with respect to the Finance sector. First MER and now Citi's Prince is out. Financials weighing on Asian markets as well as U.S, futures.

Broad market volatility moved higher this week with the VIX up 24% from last Friday's close, now at 24.25. This move in volatility took place with a sell-off in the S&P 500 taking the index down ~2% on the week. While broad market volatility moved higher this week, tech-focused volatility is little changed from last Friday's close with the VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) up just 3% on the week at 25.75. This comes with the Nasdaq Composite roughly unchanged on the week, as much of this week's broader market weakness was centered around financial names.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: ABK -47.7%, LCAV -44.3%, SWHC -41.5%, SCA -39.7%, AGO -36.4%, RAMR -35.8%, PMI -32.9%, SMSI -32.9%, MBI -32.5%, GNCMA -32.2%, CROX -30.9%, MI -30.9%, VLCM -29.7%, CLUB -29.6%, FARO -28.5%, PCBC -28.4%, VNDA -28.3%, CSK -28.1%, NSIT -27.6%, CPSL -27.2%, FBC -26.8%, CSR -26.2%, GLUU -25.4%, ASGN -25.4%, CKSW -25.1%, LFG -24.7%, ITRI -24.6%, TWPG -24.5%, PTI -24.5%, YSI -23.7%, MRT -23.2%, FTK -22.7%, RGR -22.3%, AMMD -22%, ADPI -22%, BLDR -21.7%, BWLD -21.7%, OPNT -21.4%, PLX -21.2%, PRXI -21.2%, LNET -21.1%, HWCC -21.1%, EVC -20.7%, WNC -20.7%, HMN -20.7%, TGIC -20.6%, VRX -20.5%, ONNN -20.4%, ARP -19.9%, FDP -19.9%, ERES -19.8%, BKUNA -19.5%, SSYS -19.5%, BZH -19.4%, MNC -19.3%, IMB -19.3%, OPXT -19.3%.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: PRO 29.8%, CSIQ 29.6%, FCGI 29.6%, PSEM 29.4%, SPRD 28.5%, EZEM 27%, UTHR 26.7%, SOHU 25.6%, BDY 25.4%, PRGO 25.4%, RSYS 25.3%, SIRF 23.3%, BQI 23%, PPO 22.7%, EHTH 22.4%, ATHR 21.3%, ASTIZ 20.3%, QRCP 20%, CBI 19.9%, SXE 19.3%, MA 19.2% SYNA 18.7%, WATG 18.4%, SSRX 17.7%, LUNA 17.5%, EGT 17.5%, RICK 17.4%, CFSG 17.2%, CRXX 17.2%, BGFV 16.8%, OTEX 16.8%, HOS 15.8%, CRME 15.6%, CTCM 15.6%, WDC 15.3%, HEM 15.3%, AG 15.3%, IMA 15.3%, MSTR 15.3%, AUTH 15.2%, PLXS 15.1%, AMED 15.1%, ESLR 15%, XPRT 15%, MANT 15%, FLS 14.9%, NTES 14.8%, VGZ 14.7%, SKF 14.4%, FRG 14.4%, EQIX 14.3%, CAVM 13.6%, GLT 13.6%, CVLT 13.6%, GLBL 13.6%, IDSY 13.5%, BIDU 1.4%, HMSY 13.5%, TWLL 13.2%.

Of the hundreds of companies reporting earnings the week of Nov 5th-9th some of the bigger names include: Monday: BKC, CAPA, MVL, MFLX, NXG, OMRI, TTI, TLCV, ASEI, APC, AUDC, CECO, CDR, DIVX, LOCM, and WMS... Tuesday: ABY, ADM, CTSH, EXPD, FTEK, LEA, TAP, NT, VLO, BEXP, INAP, and OVEN... Wednesday: DTV, FLR, FWLT, FTO, GM, MGAM, PLA, WNR, GRRF, CSCO, CTRP, FSLR, IO, JCOM, KNXA, NTES, and WBMD... Thursday: AIRM, CVC, CRZO, XTXI, FLO, F, RMIX, URBN, VG, CELL, CEPH, COGO, JDSA, MIPS, NVDA, QCOM, PCLN, and DIS... Friday: BRKS, CLWR, DRS, GG, JASO, IART, and SIN.

Mail Bag

CROX

I've enjoyed your blog over the last year. Curious about your thoughts on CROX and where you think buyers would support the price.There is considerable support at the 47ish on the chart which also happens to be the 200dma (where it closed on Friday as well), support at 44.10 from the capitulation high volume day in August too. Do you think these will hold? if not, where would you expect buyers to stepin?


The first chart is the daily time frame for CROX. We see that Friday's low lines up nicely with pivot point support which has been in play several times since last June as highlighted by the blue arrows. Other key take aways here are the capitulation volume over the last two sessions and the proximity of the rising 200 DMA. The angle of the MA is important because a flat or down sloping 200 DMA is not as supportive as a rising MA.


The second chart is the weekly time frame where we can see that CROX has retraced almost 50% from the all time low to last week's high. Also note the wide bearish engulfing bar.


The third chart is the 15 minute time frame. The key takeaway here is the blue line which is the intra-day PP. Price tested and failed the $50.00 area on Thursday and Friday. Usually the third test is the one that succeeds, so set an alert at this level for a potential BO.

If price takes out Friday's low, look for support on a test of the 200 DMA.

Fibonacci:


The SIRF chart below was traded on Thursday (day after wide gap) and the question is how to place Fib extension lines.

If a stock does not extend to the 38% level on the gap day, I usually leave the Fibs intact and look for an extension the following day. This is quite common for very wide gaps. Thursday SIRF gapped slightly lower and held support of the ORH from the previous day as support on a closing basis. The blue line held as intra-day support on a closing basis on Wednesday afternoon and on Thursday it held as resistance in early trade. Once price took out the blue line, it was safe to go long. Price then eventually extended just pennies shy of the target 38%.


Reader Feedback

Hi Jamie, I just would like to update you on my performance this month (the first full month since I first emailed you for some help). I finished the month up 13R with a win rate of 50% and an expectancy of 0.94. I feel good about my results and think that I may truly be successful over the long term. No doubt that your advice was instrumental in my success and I appreciate the time you took to answer my questions.

Not having anyone to confer with about trading, let alone someone to teach me, makes the learning curve that much steeper. I only do this part time and often I find myself trying to do it from the desk of my full time job which I have learned is very difficult to do as trading requires undivided attention and focus.

I look forward to continued learning from your blog.

Friday, November 02, 2007

Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - athenahealth, Inc (Public, NASDAQ:ATHN)

ATHN gapped up on earnings and carved out an inverted hammer. The next two bars were inside on declining volume. The second inside bar was a bullish green hammer so I took a dummy long above the second bar high. The BO bar closed above the ORH. After that we consolidated below and above R2 before momentum finally kicked in. I took a partial at the 50% Fibonacci extension of the previous day low to the ORH and closed at 75% ( mismanaged the last exit - should have been faster on that WRB).

ATHN is a recent IPO. As you can see from the daily chart below, it tested its all time swing high today. If it breaks out of this base, I think we could see more volume come into the stock. I'm adding it my WL.


Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)

CROX gapped down on earnings Thursday morning and after a lot of offsets, it finally started to look interesting as price and the down sloping ema started to come together. It carved out a NR7, mini gravestone doji at the base of the ORL, so I decided to take a dummy short. I took a partial at the round $50.00 thinking it might catch a bid at this level. However, it continued lower and couldn't even manage to close at $50.00 on the consolidation., before heading lower in the last hour. The Fibonacci extension from the previous day high to the ORL did not exceed 25%, but it didn't have to because there was plenty of money to be made between the ORL and 25% because of the size of the gap.