Tuesday, July 04, 2006

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Are We Going Higher from Here?

Click on charts for larger views.

This chart of the NASDAQ shows that we have retraced 38% of the move off of the April highs. It also shows how we are on the cusp of recapturing the long-term trendline. If we succeed in recapturing the trendline and rallying from there, the price action below the trendline would be considered a bear trap.

This is a 60 minute view of the NASDAQ with support (blue) and resistance levels (red). The steepness of the last leg up is not likely sustainable beyond the next two resistance levels.

The Nasdaq led the way down and normally would lead the way back up. However, currently the NASDAQ is lagging both the S&P and the DOW in the corrective bounce. Furthermore, the SOX's participation has been lame. Unless we get more leadership from the SOX in the very short-term, it is unlikely that the NASDAQ will succeed much higher.

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