Sunday, August 03, 2008

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Feeling Bearish

IBD says we're in a confirmed rally, but I'm just not feeling it. Maybe it's just me, but the last few sessions have me thinking that this is going to break as a bear flag, not a base & break long.

4 comments:

mh497 said...

It's a bit of a tell though that the down volume days aren't moving us down much. I think IBD might be right.

Jamie said...

That's a characteristic of the flag pattern. This thing should conclude one way or the other very shortly. I don't care which way it breaks, but the economic data that came out Thursday and Friday doesn't make for a strong bull case.

Stewie said...

i agree with jamie. while the bearish aggression hasn't been with full force, the recent 'rally' is very mild and limp and has all the feel of a bear flag. and i think it's only a matter of time, the bears catch on to this weakness and they'll be ready to knock this market lower. however, my prediction will be a slow steady water torture decline out of this bear flag/wedge. The real nasty declines will come later. exciting times :-)

Jamie said...

Stewie,

Makes perfect sense to me especially given the summer holiday season.