Monday, March 02, 2009

Technical Picture - Bearish Start to New Week/Month

This is monthly chart of the S&P. Next support level 680, followed by 600. The lower support line at 472 represents the 38% Fibonacci extension of the double top pattern. Now that's a sobering target.

On a positive note, one of Kudlow's guests tonight, Doug Kass, predicted that the 2009 lows will be made this week. Watch the video near the end. The intro - Buffett/Baseball metaphor is good too.

Higher $USD smashes commodities.

Click on charts to enlarge


JF David said...

One possible area of support could be the intraday range of the 1987 black monday. This could be the bottom of this bear market. Everything is possible!

Jamie said...


My chart only goes back 20 years. What is that that level?

JF David said...

range of oct 1987: 329-216, this is still a long way to go but not impossible, consedering market behevior of the last 12 months.

At 329 the SP500 would had lost about 80% of his value from the oct 2007 top.

Jamie said...

Thanks JF,

I will take note of that range for future reference. But let's hope we don't go anywhere near that range in the near term.

thedocument said...

It's also important to note that we are playing out wave 3 of 5 of the Primary bear market move. It is this wave that sees panics that stretch indicators beyond their regular "playable" levels (for mean reversion). I think we could see the SPX under 600 within days. We'll then get a rally, test the bottom, and then embark on a multi-month primary corrective rally.

Jamie said...

The DOCument,

Thanks, I get lost in the wave counts. I was kind of hoping we were on wave 5 of 5 already.