Sunday, September 20, 2009

Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE: POT) - Revised Guidance

Potash shares (POT 93.34, -3.80, -3.91%) dropped 4.2% to $93.05, while Mosaic (MOS 52.95, -1.30, -2.40%) fell 3% to $52.60 in late trading.

Potash said late Friday that it expects fiscal full-year earnings of $3.25 to $3.75 a share, down from a previous forecast of $4 to $5 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were forecasting $4.16 a share for the year.

"The change primarily reflects lower than forecasted potash sales volumes due to continued slow demand and limited restocking by fertilizer distributors around the world," Potash said in a statement.

Potash also expects third-quarter earnings to come in at the low end of a range of 80 cents to $1.20 a share. Analysts are looking for 93 cents a share from that period.


I've added the 15 min. charts for POT and MOS below with support/resistance levels (blue lines). If a low risk entry sets up at or near the S/R levels, I'll take the trade. MOS is more likely to trade in sympathy with POT than the other names in the agchem space. An entry for MOS would be between $53 and $52.50.


GD said...

Hi Jamie,

Do you think we can "short" POT by Monday? Any hint/idea of yours might give some clue! Thanks!

Jamie said...


POT hit $93.00 in after hours trade Friday. That is a support level, however, the news is very bad and we can expect further downside action on Monday. I will post a chart over the weekend with the support resistance levels in play.