Sunday, November 21, 2010

Technical Picture - Markets Pare Back Losses to End Week Even

Equities continued to correct into mid-week and rallied on the GM IPO Thursday in a somewhat contrived fashion. Thursday was an accumulation day, but we need to see a follow through day next week in order to presume the correction is over. Expecting volume to be light ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. Black Friday will be all important to confirm that the run on retailers will continue. Specialty retailers have bullish charts including COH, CROX, TIF, SBUX, ANF...

Keep an eye on the economic calendar as we have GDP and FOMC minutes on Tuesday and lots of data, including jobless claims, on Wednesday. Thursday is Thanksgiving holiday and Friday is a half day session.

The $USD is retracing in a tight, orderly fashion after ripping to the upper side of the channel. We have solid support, and I expect it to attempt to BO of the channel soon.

GLD is playing out exactly as planned, with very light volume, so far, on the right shoulder. I expect this to be a near-term top and a break of the H&S top will bring prices back to the longer-term trendline.

In my last post, I said that AMZN would bounce from key support at $157.00. It did, and we had a nice swing long back to the 50% Fib. retracement $165.00. Not sure, if it will move much higher before Black Friday. Anyway, my swing is complete, but I will be watching for any day trades that may develop.

CRM had a beautiful earnings gap on Friday. My day trade is depicted below. Since it closed on its highs, I expect follow through to the 62-100% Fib. ext. tomorrow.

SNDK Fib. retracement long. This one took a long time to get going, but held above the stop (red line) and reached the targets.

Continued strength in semis could see SNDK finally breakout of this trading zone.

NTAP looks poised for a retest of Wednesday's lows following the pre-release of its earnings and guidance during regular trading hours. I had just knifed long NTAP when it was halted. Hate when that happens. Turned out okay as the stock traded higher when it re-opened.

But after two days of narrow range meandering, it could break support, and go for a retest, which will likely be a fast move lower - see support/resistance lines on chart below. If Wednesday's lows don't hold, it will go to $47.00, as depicted on the daily.

EXPD looks poised to BO this week.

MCP looks good for a retracement trade. Formed a nice C&H on th lower timeframe Friday and extended perfectly.

On a personal note, I had minor surgery last Tuesday and I am just now, starting to feel like myself again. That explains the lack on posts last week.


chin said...

Hi Jamie,

Hope you are feeling better. Missed reading your comments last week.

Thanks for posting the latest for this week.


Jamie said...

Thanks Chin!