Thursday, April 13, 2006

Pre-Market - AAPL, SNDK, LRCX, CTXS, AMD, BRCM

Apple Computer: Briefing.com notes - Hearing tier-1 firm cutting estimates on AAPL (AAPL) 66.71 - Spiking down below $66.00 just ahead of the open - updated 9:20 EST

SNDK - Traded much higher in AH - added to the S&P 500. Also pondering a bid on Lexar Media. Coming in a bit now due to this latest news. LEXR trading up in pre-market.

LRCX - Trading much higher in the pre-market and AH on earnings beat. Up in sympathy: NVLS +2.1%, ASML +1.9%, AMAT +1.7%, KLAC +1.6%.

A few comments from analysts courtesy of Briefing.com:


Lam Research tgt raised to $54 from $41 at Prudential- following earnings (LRCX) 44.71

Lam Research: The math does not compute, but mgmt still bullish on 2H - CIBC (LRCX) 44.71 : CIBC notes that contrary to their data points heading into the quarter suggestive of an order/shipment decline in Sept. (they still have high conviction in this view), mgmt provided an outlook for positive Q/Q growth in the out-quarter. They say it sees NAND flash as a steady spender in 2H, likely due to MU. However, firm says the math does not compute. They ran a simple analysis on a flat H/H scenario for orders and shipments in C2H06, and conclude that for this to happen, either the etch market must grow well above 30% Y/Y, or LRCX is taking about 80% of incremental market growth this year. In spite of mgmt's positive read on Sept., they say near-term guidance for June is not a catalyst driving their model higher. They see downside of 20% using C2005 trough valuation as a gauge.

Lam Research: View LRCX's markedly more positive outlook for Sep Q orders as likely catalyst for LRCX & broader semi cap group - TWP (LRCX) 44.71 : Thomas Weisel notes that LRCX reported strong Mar Q orders of $520 mln (up 29% q/q), above their estimate of $511 mln. They note that rev was $437 mln (up 22% q/q), higher than their estimate of $421 mln. Excluding a 1x charge of $0.05 per share, EPS was $0.65 vs. their estimate of $0.60. Based on mgmt's belief that the current capacity ramp in the memory segment will remain steady for at least the next two quarters, management expects overall Sep Q q/q order growth will be positive vs. a consensus estimate of negative 15% q/q. Firm views LRCX mgmt's markedly more positive outlook for Sep Q orders as a likely catalyst for LRCX shares and the broader semi cap group.

NDX futures flat.

Citrix Systems: Expect strong Q1 - Canaccord (CTXS) 37.89 : Canaccord Adams notes that CTXS reports its Q1 results on April 19, and they expect the co to deliver a strong qtr with rev of $250 mln and EPS of $0.29 (consensus $247.7 mln and $0.28). Firm believes that there is upside to their ests based on strong channel results especially from partners SAP and MSFT. However, with the strong stock price over the last six month and the co beating expectations in the past few qtrs, firm sees the possibility of investors already anticipating a strong qtr that again will beat consensus and their ests.

NVDA and AMD trading down in pre-market. AMD earnings are being interpreted somewhat negatively given the high expectation.

Broadcom estimates, target raised to $50 at Amtech (BRCM) 43.74 : Amtech believes that BRCM is likely to meet or beat their and consensus ests for the March qtr on April 20. Strength in the qtr came predominantly from set-top boxes, ADSL2, and Bluetooth/VPOD product lines. Going into Q2, firm sees the same trend continuing, driven by set-top boxes with PVR and HD functionality, with Digital TV shipments beginning to ramp. Reits Buy and raises their tgt to $50.

Update 9:15 EST - NDX futures down slightly (-2.50)

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