Sunday, June 25, 2006

Canada's Oil & Energy Sectors - Merger Speculation May Keep Prices from Pulling Back Too Far

Friday's Anadarko merger news ended the third straight week of losses for Canada's energy rich TSX index.

Producers of oil and gas were the biggest gainers. EnCana Corp., Canada's largest natural-gas company, closed at C$56.35, up 2.66%. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. rose for the fourth day in a row, climbing C$2.22, or 4.15 percent, to close at C$55.71.

Suncor Energy Inc. rose C$2.54, or 3.18 percent, to C$82.54. The world's largest oil-sands producer was raised to ``buy'' from ``hold'' by analyst Paul Sankey at Deutsche Bank, who wrote in a note that investors can expect ``sustainable long term growth.''


CNQ looks well positioned to break the downtrend line in the very short-term.

SU has some momentum with the bullish gaps, but I don't trust the move because of the low volume. Wait for a pullback or gap fill.

ECA is the most predictable of the three, because of its $50.00 pivot point.

COS.UN is the only play of the four to hold its 200 day MA through the recent downtrend.

Most of these, except COS.UN, trade on the NYSE.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for posting those Jamie. Is it wrong or right to think that a oils sands or natural gas play has a better chance of gains if it is traded on both the US and CA markets? For example COS.UN is only on the TSE, which makes me think that most Americans would not bother with it. Hope that makes sense.
Glenn

TJ said...

Hi Glenn,
Yes that makes sense plus if you want to take advantage of any potential consolidation plays in the sector, you'll want to buy the companies as opposed the trust. The trust is good for tax benefits as long as there is no threat of any change of heart by the gov't. But gov't is known for changing its mind from time to time.