Sunday, February 18, 2007

Dummy Trade of the Day - IntercontinentalExchange, Inc. (Public, NYSE:ICE)

After a failed morning rally, ICE had an orderly pullback to its 10 period EMA. Since the EMA was fairly flat, it is important to wait for an actual break of the base because often times these setups just go into some sideways action and eventually fall over. The 5 minute timeframe below has a better view of the base. The entry was long on a break of a shallow base following an NR7 bar on support of the 10 period EMA.

The 5 minute timeframe below shows that there was actually a second base which formed late in the session. After retracing 62% of the move from the low of my entry point, ICE carved out a hammer-like bar which closed just above the 50 SMA signaling a potential reversal. It then formed another shallow base from which a second entry could have been taken for a momo move into the close. Unfortunately, I missed it on Friday, but in the future I will look for late day retracements using Fibonacci levels as my guide.

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