CIEN gapped up on strong earnings and challenged its weekly pivot high (blue line) in the OR, but failed to close above it. Price pulled back just above the 32% Fibonacci retracement level and then started to move up again slowly. The 11th stick was NR7 and was sitting on support of the rising 5 period EMA. I decided to scale in as price took out the high of NR7, knowing that the PP resistance could be problematic. Three bars later it was challenged and failed again so I moved my stop to break even. About an hour later, yet another attempt failed. At this point I was getting frustrated. However, I talked myself into holding on because each bar was now hugging the PP. In the last hour price finally closed above the PP and the ORH. Although the trade did not extend to the target 38%, and I did not add to my position on the break of the ORH as I normally would, it did generate a 1 pt. gain. Oddly enough it was satisfying because having missed the first hour and half of the session due to personal business, my expectations for the session were low.
CAL gapped up and tagged its daily pivot high in the OR. After testing the PP for a full hour, price retraced 50% before making a second attempt to break out. After closing above the PP, it carved out a red hanging man. I shorted CAL on confirmation of the hanging man as price fell back below the PP.
Normally, I like to see some basing at resistance before price breaks out. Here CAL, made a vertical move from the 50% retracement level back up to the PP. This type of breakout often results in a failure because the stock is exhausted by the time it reaches the key technical level.
18 comments:
Jamie - Great concept analysis on CAL... test of PP, breakout attempt from vertical move versus pre-breakout basing action... good stuff.
Thanks Jim,
Appreciate the feedback.
In the past I always made the mistake of buying on top of vertical move, probably around 40.7. From now on I will look to short failed breakouts when there is a good setup.
Bubs,
When I started trading, I used to fall into these bull traps as well. The setup is key as there is always the possibility of a retest of the breakout point. In this case the confirmation of the red hanging man was very compelling as a failed break and reversal.
Jamie - I know that you have been on Blogger since late 2005. How long have you been trading and what are your thoughts on Esignal?
Hi Jamie,
Did you find the NR7 on CIEN on your own, or were you alerted to it?
Thanks,
ADD
Jim,
I've been trading since late 2001. I use Esignal Basic and I like the stable platform and reliable charts. Before subscribing to Esignal, I took a free trial of RealTick and I would have to say that it is better, however, in Canada it is extremely expensive and only available through a broker (not my broker - IB).
Hi ADD,
I found it on my own. Do you use alerts for NR7? I'm not sure how to program the code for that but I do see other bloggers with annotated 7s and diamonds to signify NRBs.
ADD,
I just reviewed some of my recent gapper trades and I noticed that the NR7 bar almost always sets up on the 5 period EMA.
I am using an NR7 scan for EOD charts, but don't have one for intra-day. I think Trade-Ideas has a NR7 scan.
ADD
Thanks ADD,
What EOD scanning software are you using?
I've never had any luck with the NR7 intraday scan in Trade_Ideas. They have an otherwise excellent product, but the NR7 scan is NG.
I created an EOD scan in TC2007.
Here is the formula for anyone who uses it.
(H - L) < (H1 - L1) AND (H - L) < (H2 - L2) AND (H - L) < (H3 - L3) AND (H - L) < (H4 - L4) AND (H - L) < (H5 - L5) AND (H - L) < (H6 - L6)
Should catch most of them.
ADD Trader
Hi Jamie,
I'm back from my long holiday and its great to continue seeing good analysis coming from you.
Lots of changes during my absence: CBS acquired Wallstrip, Esto closing down his blog (hey I didn't even get to say goodbye to him!) etc. I hope you will keep up the good work here and ignore those who try to put you down.
Your analysis of these trades highlight the importance of integration of trading concepts like MA, Fib Retracement, candlesticks, pivot points and trade management. Great post!
@ ADD,
Thanks for the formula. Your formula looks for price contraction, but I don't see anything for volume contraction. I assume the rest is visual on your part?
@ Simply Options Trader,
Welcome back and I hope you had a wonderful vacation. Yes, quite a few changes. Esto closed down the blog on Friday. It happened quickly so I'm sure you're not alone in missing the goodbye.
Appreciate the feedback from a fellow blogger.
Yes, the formula is for price contraction only. It is only one of the screens in the scan. There are about 6 others that deal with price, volume, exchange, etc...!
ADD
Hi Jamie,
Great analysis. I learned a lot from your blog. I slowly learn how to analysis a potential trade by reading your blog, other than just jump on buy or sell signals. I have two questions:
1. How do you find your trading candidates every day? How many stocks are you looking at during the trading day?
2. How do you calculate daily pivot high, weekly pivot high or monthly pivot high? Do you use any alert to warn you when price closing pivot point?
Thank you!
Hi Cathy,
Thanks for the compliment. I have been meaning to do a post on pivot points as other readers have sent emails asking the same question. I will try and do that this weekend.
Most of the dummy trades come from either the briefing.com list of gappers or from gapper scans.
The other trades are usually based on end of day scnas where I look for base and break setups and narrow range bars.
Hi Jamie,
Thank you for the answer. I also read your post about pivot point. Thank you very much.
Cathy
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