In response to Pat's question in comments below. The first chart is the daily with PP (blue arrows) and support congestion points (red arrows). 50
SMA in play and lines up closely to PP.
Choppy but you could have tried to this PP break following NR7
doji. I don't particularly like the
doji as the trigger bar (indecision) so I usually wait for confirmation in terms of using the previous bar high as my base. I'm not crazy about the setup and I would not have put much money to work here. Don't like the long upper shadow on the 11:45 bar. However, this was the third test of
the PP and often the third test is the one that finally breaks through. Actually looks a lot better on the 5 minute than the 15.
In response to Pat's question in comments below. The first chart is the daily with PP (blue arrows) and support congestion points (red arrows). 50 SMA in play and lines up closely to PP.
Choppy but you could have tried to this PP break following NR7 doji. I don't particularly like the doji as the trigger bar (indecision) so I usually wait for confirmation in terms of using the previous bar high as my base. I'm not crazy about the setup and I would not have put much money to work here. Don't like the long upper shadow on the 11:45 bar. However, this was the third test of the PP and often the third test is the one that finally breaks through. Actually looks a lot better on the 5 minute than the 15.
10 comments:
Jamie's PP analysis is pure platinum!
DWA and ILMN have been unusually strong in this weak market.
DRIV tested a key level today.
FTEK opened well below 200MA (news) and created high volume, WR bar to close strong above 200MA. It's not the news, but how the stock responds to/after the news...
Thanks Jim,
Good trade ideas. Sorry I missed that FTEK move.
man that was some awsome analysis. it just looks like noise to me until your analysis. as always, looking forward to your daily posts.
Thanks Andrew
Thanks for the love and work you put into these posts! (I know you love your work ;)
Thanks Zoomie,
Appreciate the appreciation. Only a fellow blogger knows how much work is really involved :)
Thanks for showcasing this example.
NILE had an awesome run up today, about $18 move intraday. Looking at 15min chart for the week, there's PP at about $86.65.
Would you have taken the trade at a break of the $86.65 PP or wait for it to clear $83.26? (high of prior day)
Worth to keep watch on this stock, likely to hit $100!
Pat
Pat,
Awesome move on NILE. I didn't see this but even if I had I would not have entered even on the B&B because the first two 15 min. bars comprised an 8 pt. move. I would be expecting a retracement and that always makes me nervous when I enter a stock that is so extended.
Good catch if you traded it!
Interesting note out by Amtech yesterday.
Blue Nile: Strong june quarter results; overly conservative guidance raises a red flag- Amtech (82.00 ) : Amtech notes NILE reported yesterday, the firm notes the co revised FY07 guidance midpoints of $315 mln in revenue and $0.98 in EPS were also above the Street, although they remained below their street-high ests. Given this is the second consecutive quarter in which NILE has beaten the top end of its EPS guidance range by 25% or more, the firm is inclined to view mgmt's 10% boost to its FY07 EPS guidance midpoint as overly conservative. Furthermore, they question whether or not "gaming" Wall Street ests is in the best interest of shareholders as it could eventually set the stock up for a severe correction. The firm says although they readily admit that their call on NILE has been wrong thus far, they are comfortable with their Sell rating at current levels.
Thanks Jamie, unfortunately, I only saw this AH, so did not trade it :(
Just like to bring you back to this trade for a closer look. If we were to trade the break of PP, it would be near the start of second 15min bar and the first bar move was $4 vs the $8 move which you mentioned would have been too wide for entry. Assuming NILE was a lower priced stock and all things constant in the chart, would you have chosen to enter on break of $82.54 (3/8 high) or $83.26 (6/8 high)?
One thing about PP which I'm still not crystal clear is when we have PP lined up by 2 points (as in case of NILE (at 3/8 high) as well as 6/8 ORH) but yet there is a upper tail sticking out (high of 6/8), do we wait for break of the upper tail OR just break of PP will do? Thanks
Pat
Pat,
The $82.54 level is the real PP. Looking at the intraday chart, I suspect the long shadow on 6/8 was a bad tick. Price should base at the PP and when I look at the 1 min. timeframe I see a bit of consolidation at the $82.54 PP level before the actual break.
If we eliminate the bad tick, $82,50 was the late day pivot high on 6/8 as well as the ORH.
The real PP is the one which comes into play most often.
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