BX was a gapper from Briefing's list this morning. After retracing 32% of the move from the previous day low to the ORH, it set up a dummy mini B&B long with support from the rising 5 period ema. I was stopped out on the next bar. Not sure if this is due to the specialist taking out all the stops before moving price higher or if it was due to the earnings conference call. Either way, I don't like specialists and I wish there were no conference calls during regular trading hours.
TTI gapped down about a week and half ago. I traded it short on the gap day and kept it on my watch list. After gapping up into its downsloping intraday trendline, it reversed. A fairly NR three bar consolidation, set up a nice shorting opp. My target was the morning swing high from the gap down day which you can see on the chart below. I took a partial at PP support and closed the position as price approached the target.
NVDA was a two day B&B pattern which stalled just below the ORH. The better trade on NVDA would have been a long entry after NVDA tested intraday support at this morning's swing low.
17 comments:
I trade BX at almost exact same pot at you did, but I didn't set my stop that close.. I have a mental stop as close as you and physical stop is actually much wider, then when I came back to the chart, realize my mental stop was trigger, I manage to get out with break even.
-DT.
And it's due to the conference call, I hate conference call/news during trading session.
-DT.
DT,
I struggled with the stop placement on BX, but in the end I couldn't justify a wider stop because the risk:reward on a retracement back to the ORH (prelim. target). Took a similar setup on QCOM and it worked better. However, I noticed that most of the stocks that set up like this did not reach the prelim. target - BX, QCOM and MNST.
Agree conf. call can easily foil the setup.
Just had to add a comment as yours regarding the Specialists caused me to laugh out loud, which caused my daughter to ask, "What's so funny?" I brought her into my office and reviewed your BX trade with her. I explained why you placed your stop where you did (the gap could have gotten filled-in)and what happened afterwards. She said, "Then I don't like Specialists either," which made me laugh even harder! Sometimes the cat wins, eh?
Philip
That's great Philip,
Now I'm laughing too!
Nice job Jamie in squeezing out some profits in a tough day. None of us could find a trade today. Keep up the great posts. HCPG.
Thanks guys,
Hopefully, we'll get some price expansion tomorrow.
FYI, Specialists now only participate in 4% of transactions on the NYSE with the advent of the hybrid system.
I used to have the same beef with them but it is now much more orderly.
Thanks El Toro,
Bear Wagner is the specialist firm handling Blackstone Group. Maybe they don't bother with small orders, but it did feel like a specialist move when price dipped after making a base. Could be that the specialist wanted to fill a bigger order by taking out all the stops on the smaller orders. Don't know for sure but 4% is still too much and I'm not entirely comfortable trading NYSE stocks.
I realize that I can't blame a specialist for my losing trade. If I had done my homework and focused on the lower timeframe, I might not have entered the trade at all as it was a touch choppy.
Yeah, I agree that 4% is too much as well. The way I understand it is that the specialists are now only involved in the opening/closing if there is a imbalance and big orders which switch the stocks back to the manual auction markets of old. Next week the NYSE starts to further implement Reg NMS which should make trading even better for us. It will further prevent the trade throughs and erratic movements you currently get.
Jamie,
Good risk control, good trading. The BX setup was a NR, IB15 with volume contraction, 5MA support, IB15 high was above ORL, and above last ~14 days of price action. Nothing wrong with the setup. Buy the BO with stop below the IB15 low - absolutely... that is the low risk trade. It was stopped out - bummer... but you EXECUTED a low risk plan. That, my friend, is great trading!
Great El Toro,
Good to know as this could expand the number trading opps.
jamie thanks for showing a loser to give us a diff. perspective than usual! you are the man
Thanks Jim,
Appreciate your support.
Teddy,
Haven't heard from you guys in a while. How are you and Alex enjoying the market action these days?
Jamie,
That's why I don't trade ny stocks: erratic, late opens, specialist but off course that will all change. Also like to narrow the list. I traded lend vclk from the list but didn't have a focus stock like Friday's NVDA, so I put it back in...total of 7>$8 except lend. I could have faded nvda at the open... the stock had a r/t of 4 points. That's all I need! A good idea to keep some recent causalties and momos from the recent past like lamr leap to choose from. I like a short list to fcus onbut no doubt better set ups are around.
Good work.
BL,
Agree there was big money to be made with NVDA in early trade. Although I would have preferred the return trip as opposed to shorting the open.
Add JOYG to your list. I think it's going to test its PP at $47.00 A successful break of $47.00 could see a retest of $45.00. On the 15 minute timeframe, we have convergence of 20 and 50 MAs above price.
LEAP looks just about ready to fall back down soon.
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