Monday, August 20, 2007

Narrow Range Trading Day - Small Moves and Missed Trades

UNH set up a nice long on the 5 minute but failed - lack of volume on the break. Shorting the failure would have generated a nice reward.


NTAP looked like it was just about to break the trendline and popped up, retracing 62% of the move from the ORH. It carved out two stars with upper shadows and set up a dummy short. Was hoping for further weakness after lunch, but it decided to bounce instead.


ADSK broke out of a PP base but printed a series of offsets before finally extending out of a B&B later in the day. I missed the initial base breakout on ALXN (5 min.), but managed to get in on the second leg up after consolidation.
I was hoping for a wider retracement on EBAY out of this NR consolidation, but it failed and I was stopped out for a tiny gain.

Missed Gapper Trades



FSLR and UNG were two of the more promising gappers from the Briefing.com list this morning. In the early going they were not setting up exactly as I'd hoped so I passed. Should have stuck with them because eventually, they both came through with nice dummy setups.

They both broke too soon - 5 period ema too far away on the 15 min. timeframe. FSLR failed to extend to the 38% extension in the first run, but retraced and set up a low risk long at the base of the morning swing high.



UNG consolidated midway between the ORL and the Fib. ext. target setting a nice dummy short.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very weird, my ADSK look different from yours.

TJ said...

Jerry,

Your ADSK chart on tradestories.blogspot.com is 30 min. Mine is 15 min. I checked stockcharts.com and it's the same as Esignal.

Anonymous said...

oh no, I have eye problem, too. Better sleep early tonight.

Anonymous said...

An August Monday. SEPR offered a small B&B just above 27 - good for pizza money.

RIMM went coast-to-coast in the last 3 sessions - quite a ride for some (not me).

Anonymous said...

Jamie,
Why not go for break of $45 at 11.05 5 min bar for ADSK?

Pat

Anonymous said...

Jamai,
I Had the Briefing list too and added some other premkt, alot of fades, but managed FSLR 14/15" got out too soon, LOW 6,16/15" coffee and danish TMA 5/1" be. Do you find the stocks over say $>40 >1m vol are easier, more rewarding than the cheaper ones, or does it matter?

TJ said...

Jim,

At some point I removed RIMM from my watch list to bring the list back down to a manageable size. I missed a really nice move off of the lows. So now I'll add it back for the next big move.

I saw SEPR, ADSK and FSLR all breaking their bases with long upper wicks so I was playing it very carefully.

TJ said...

Pat, I was watching ADSK on 15 min. Got a little gun shy after the UNH stop out. On the 15 min. ADSK carved out a long upper shadow on the 11:00 bar and that's why I waited for a B&B.

TJ said...

BL,

Nice work on FSLR. Stock price level is less important than setup. But I prefer stocks that trade > 4-5 M per day like NVDA, SNDK, AAPL, and others. Gappers are good because a stock that normally has very little volume can have huge vol./momentum on the gap day. But everything else being equal, I prefer a $20 stock over a $200 stock. I prefer INTC over GOOG.