Saturday, August 25, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Trendline Breach - Bullish Bias Intact





The fear factor as measured by the VXN is clearly well off of last Thursday's multi-year high and the bulls are temporarily back in control with a trendline breach. We are back in the overbought zone and month-end is just a heart beat away. A pullback in the early part of next week would help alleviate the extended short term technicals and allow a bit of room ahead of the end/start of the month positive bias. Don't want to get ahead of myself but the Fed move last Friday certainly has had a big impact in dissipating the fear factor. We've had very little in the way of pullbacks all week and the weekly chart looks like a bear trap.

Stock over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: BCSI +51, ACH +40%, WX +31%, TNH +29%, BTM +29%, BRP +29%, VMW +28%, TBSI +27%, RDYN +27%, HDNG +26%, IDP +26%, FWLT +26%, NEON +26%, ANTP +25%, SNCR +25%, NM +25%, CALM +25%, IVN +25%, FMT +24%, DRYS +24%, AXR +24%, VSEC +24%, LNDC +24%, BYI +24%, MEA +24%, GME +24%, AVCI +23%, ASIA +23%, VII +23%, LGCY +23%, MENT +21%, GTI +21%, TCHC +21%, DFC +21%, ANSV +21%, CKSW +20%

Stock over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: SNIC -25%, TWB -25% UNG -20%, GMTN -19%, FLML -19%, SBP -18%, ETEL -17%, CSUN -16%, PLCE -15%, GMET -14%, VC -14%, TDSC -14%, DEEP -14%, BIOF -14%, GSAT -14%, CCBL -13%, TMA -13%, TWP -13%, BECN -13%, TMTAD -13%, MNCP -12%, JRN -12%, SR -12%, LAD -12%, ZGEN -12%, OREX -12%, WNS -12%, OPLK -11%, JAV -11%, ICTG -11%, AAUK -11%, KNSY -11%

Companies reporting earnings the week of Aug 27th-31sth include: Monday: SNDA Tuesday: CMED, COCO, SAFM, TUES, ANEN, APSG, BGP, DY, MCRS, PEC, SMTC, LNUX, NCTY... Wednesday: BIG, BWS, CYBX, DLTR, ENER, FRED, JOYG, LAYN, WSM, CHS, CTRN, CWTR, FCEL, GEF, HEI, JAS, UEPS, NOVL, PSS, SIGM, and TIVO... Thursday: CIEN, CONN, DLM, FRE, GCO, HRB, KIRK, TIF, UNFI, VIP, ZLC, CPWM, CMOS, DLIA, DELL, ESL, LTXX, OVTI, OTEX, RSTO, SEAC, and WIND... Friday: No companies are scheduled to report.

Earlier this week NYSE released its August short interest data, which was collected on the 15th. The stocks with the largest short interest as a percentage of the float are as follows: AXR 103%; NFI 93%; BZH 73%; TOA 73%; HOV 63%; FED 60%; MWA 60%; IMB 60%; BHS 51%; TWP 51%; WCI 48%; DSL 48%; MTH 47%; HEI 45%; GDP 44%... The biggest increases in short-interest as a percentage of the float, from mid-July to mid-August, are as follows: NFI's short interest rose to 93% of the float from 67%; BZH is up to 73% from 57%; RAS up to 31% from 17%; ACA up to 21% from 10%; GDP up to 44% from 33%; RDN up to 18% from 8%; RWT up to 21% from 10%; AFN up to 26% from 16%; MTG up to 32% from 21%; FED up to 60% from 50%... The biggest decreases in short-interest from mid-July to mid- August are as follows: CDL's short interest dropped to 11% from 62%; XJT down to 15% from 33%; TSS down to 11% from 26%; TIE down to 9% form 21%; UA down to 26% from 38%; PPP down to 5% from 16%; TLB down to 38% from 47%; DJO down to 11% from 20%; AXR down to 103% from 112%; EYE down to 11% from 19%... This information is reported on a monthly basis. Not surprisingly, some of the biggest increases took place in stocks related to the mortgage/housing markets... NASDAQ short interest data for August does not appear to be compiled out yet.

Data courtesy of Briefing.com

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jamie,
I reread your StockTickr interview over the weekend. Given that you are trading full-time in the May-Oct timeframe, have you reached your goal for trading capital? For me, the base capital requirement has tended to grow somewhat over time. It has also been split into "retirement capital" and non-retirement capital. Although, I enjoy trading so much that 'only trading' would be retirement. Just curious.

TJ said...

Jim,

Still have not reached my goal for the day trading account, however, the retirement account is growing very nicely.

In Canada we don't have the 4 times capital buying power that the U.S. has for day traders.

Anonymous said...

That is a significant difference in day trading leverage.

So are you swing trading (or even longer term trading) your retirement capital, or do you take essential the same (day) trades in both retirement and day trading accounts?

TJ said...

I'm only managing 30% of my retirement account with both swing and day trades. The rest is diversified.

The day trading leverage in Canada is so conservative. It's on a share by share basis with some stocks at 0% and good stocks like AAPL at the high end around 25%.