With the US $ in the gutter, it no longer makes any sense for me and other Canadians to trade $U.S. markets. This has been a thorn in my side for quite some time now, but today really hurts.
Have a good weekend. Long weekend for us - Canadian Thanksgiving
13 comments:
Yes, as a foreigner trading in US markets, that hurts!
Today the market is in a buying frenzy after the jobs data were out.
I had my eye on MON, but missed the trade. It formed a nice hammer at 20 EMA support on the 15 min (1.15ET bar), which is also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. But I wouldn't be sure if I should enter on break of hammer high (I recall you mention that for hammer, there is no need for confirmation)OR wait till it closes above 5EMA since it is just overhead? Thanks.
Have a great holiday!
YR
Hi YR,
A green hammer reversal bar after an orderly retracement on declining volume into a technically significant level, does not require confirmation. That's a loaded sentence.
Basically, I start from the daily and map in my S/R and PP lines to get the big picture.
If there's no gap between yesterday's high and today's trade, I run my Fibs from the previous day low to the ORH or swing high (which ever is higher) to get my retracement levels. In the MON case, the gap was filled in the OR.
Price retraced within pennies of the 38% Fib. retracement level (from previous day low to morning swing high). At no time did price breach the 20 ema on a closing basis, so I would try to get in as soon as possible because the daily pivot high is $86.90 and that would be my prelim. target.
jamie: I don't understand what you mean in this post. Do you mean trading in Canadian currency vs. U.S. currency?
OONR7,
I funded my U.S. trading account in U.S.$. At the time the CDN$ was less than $0.80 vs. $U.S. so I'm losing money on the currency. I'm worried if the FED cuts rates again.
I remember, not too long ago when the loonie was $0.62 vs. USD. I'm worried that the same will happen to the US dollar.
The trading gains are being offset by currency losses. The curve on this chart is very steep, yet there appears to be no end in sight.
The Bush administration has been fiscally irresponsible and now Americans will have to pay. This will take 20 years to fix. You guys will become prisoners of your own country because your dollar has no value outside the U.S.
I totally understand. The Euro's around 40% more than the dollar and I can feel it... especially in Paris. You hit the nail on the head as far as the administration's approach. I certainly hope changes can be made in the very near future which will bring back the value of the dollar.
OONR7,
Another thing that irks me is that we (Canadians) are still paying a premium when we buy U.S. goods in Canada. Just picked up a magazine which sells for $4.50 in U.S. and we have to pay $5.50 in Canada. I'm willing to pay the premium for shipping, but how much more does it cost to ship to Montreal from New York than it does to ship to Seattle Washington, or Alaska for that matter.
A standard hardcover book is $25.00 in U.S. but we still get charged a $10.00 premium. I guess I've got foreign currency malaise.
I left Canada for the US 8 years ago and had to painfully change my CAN $ to US for about a 30% loss. At least I still have a RRSP in canadian dollars so I gained a little there ! It is interesting that there is still such a premium for canadians for books and magazines...
I am more worried about the Euro. We go to France regularly and the Euro is killing us right now. Maybe next time we will have to crash on OONR7's sofa to save :-)
ive rates at 2007.10.07 07:29:14 UTC
1.00 CAD
=
1.01916 USD
Canada Dollars United States Dollars
1 CAD = 1.01916 USD 1 USD = 0.981202 CAD
gt: I'll give you the US $/daytrader rate!!!
Thanks for the info Joseph
oonr7: lol, we will take you out to le "Père Fouettard" on St-Denis :-)
Thanks Jamie, I get your point for MON.
Under what kind of criteria then do you wait for it to close (or break?) above the 5EMA before entry? Red hammer? A prior close below 20EMA??
YR
YR,
Yes, red hammer or more ambiguous reversal pattern. Sometimes price pauses at 20 ema but it just consolidates and it is not clear if it will reverse. At that point it is best to wait for confirmation and recapture of 5 ema.
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