Thursday, October 11, 2007

Dummy Trade of the Day - Celgene Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:CELG)

When I heard all the gurus on CNBC this morning telling listeners to buy this market, I wanted throw up. When I saw the market gapping up yet again this morning, I was scratching my head.

Anyway, enough of that, I'll cover that in more detail in my NASDAQ post later this evening.

CELG, from the watch list, had a weak open, carving out a WRB (wide range bar) which closed near its lows. It consolidated the early weakness by printing three NRBs in the lower shadow range of the OR - basically three inside bars. I shorted 2 pennies below the first inside bar. As usual, I took a partial after three WR red bars and covered the balance as price approached the next round $ number. If you look at a wide range view of the 15 min. timeframe, you'll see that this area has support from yesterday afternoon's swing low and Friday's ORH.

At this support area, price rversed and CELG carved out a green hammer. I went long above the next inside bar. and took a partial when price stalled at $74.00 which was close to the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the ORH to the morning swing low. Volume seemed to be lacklustre on the move up so I kept a tight stop. When the market broke down in early afternoon I was stopped out and quickly scrambled to get short again. If price can't close above the 20 EMA on these retracement trades and falls back below rising 5 ema, it usually means that the selling will continue for another leg down.

Notice the big volume on the two selling waves and declining volume on the retracement. That is a key part of managing the trade.

Getting into a trade once it has already broken out, is more difficult than stalking it ahead of time as I did with CELG. However, this afternoon's selloff required some fast decisions in order to profit from the explosive move. Hope you guys made a lot of money!

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice! One really has to be very nimble to be able to get in & out in different directions for the same stock.

Back on to CELG, I'd like to know why you didn't enter on break of 11.30 hammer high? Higher risk due to wider stop?

Re our discussion on COST yesterday on it forming a C&H, I entered long on at 9.40 bar (5min) when it broke out, with initial stop at $69.73 (2 pennies below breakout bar). Trade was only grinding upwards slowly with lack of volume. I then adjusted my stop to 4th 15min bar low at $70.16 and then got stopped out. Why do you think this C&H failed and how do you think I can manage this trade better? Thanks

YR

Anonymous said...

Hi Jamie
Not sure if they are appropriate questions to ask. So feel free to ignore them :
1. Whats your avg win-loss ratio ?
2. What broker do you use ?
3. Could you pls. sometimes post your failed trades with your analysis on what went wrong ?

thank you again for sharing your knowledge with us

TJ said...

Thanks YR.

On the COST trade you entered on the BO. Since the stock broke out of C&H on WRB and after significant upwards movement, it was bound to consolidate after the BO. So it consolidated and started moving up slowly and then it failed to extend as per the normal expectation of 100%.

You're right, not enough volume. I noticed that a lot of patterns failed today. I'm sure that a lot of people got caught without stops in place when the selloff started. The good part about this trade was the stop management which saved it from turning into a loss. My LDK C&H didn't extend fully and my AMGN trade went nowhere fast. JASO BO failed as well. Just wasn't a good day to be long.

Answer to CELG long is what I mentioned earlier about 50 SMA on 1 minute. I'm a dummy trader so I like very low risk setups.

TJ said...

Michael,

1. > 60% but < 70%. Some weeks > 80%.
2. IB. I think you asked me a question re: futures in IB, so you knew the answer to this one, didn't you?
3.If you submit the failed trade, I'll do the analysis ;) read comment above re: today's lacklustre and failed longs.

OONR7 said...

jamie: I had CELG in my sights looking for a break of the second bar low (inside bar at pivot). But since it didn't break... I left it alone as per my 'easing in' policy. Dumb policy. I should've seen the 3rd bar and kept my order in place. That won't happen again. Great trade and nice stats!!!

TJ said...

Thanks OONR7,

Third inside bar is a tiny green hammer. When I saw it close on its high, I thought the setup was going to fall apart and reverse back up. Just as I was about to give up on it, price moved in my direction.

OONR7 said...

it was a great 'dummy' entry. Not that you're a dummy :)

Anonymous said...

Thank you for your response Jamie. Yes, you are right. I did indeed ask you about futures in IB.
thank you again.
On a diff note, we missed your morning post today :)

TJ said...

Welcome Michael,

I usually give advance notice when I'm not going to be here for the pre-market. By exception - unforeseen circumstances.