Thursday, October 04, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Choppy Consolidatiion Ahead of Jobs Data



Except for the NASDAQ, both the S&P and NYSE formed narrow range inside days. After breaching yesterday’s low in the early going, the NASDAQ was able to recover, closing up 4 pts. or 0.15% on the session.

Today’s trade was an extension of the sideways consolidation that took hold following Monday’s bullish move higher, and in front of the key jobs data scheduled for 8:30 EST pre-open tomorrow. Strength today was noted in Gold/Silver +1.9%, Utility +0.9%, Oil Service +0.9%, Natural Gas +0.9% and Rail +0.9%. Weak sectors included: Home Construction -2.2%, Steel -1.6%, Coal -1.2%, Trucking -1.1%, and Retail -0.9%.

Today's trading was on lower than avg volume (NYSE 1100, vs. 1658 avg, Nasdaq 1726, vs. 2145 avg), with advancers outpacing decliners (NYSE 1976/1234, Nasdaq 1655/1294) with new highs outpacing new lows (NYSE 76/64; Nasdaq 141/66).

Economic Calendar for tomorrow:

Date

Time EST

Econ. Data

Period

Consensus

Prior Period

Oct 05

08:30

Non-farm payroll

Sep

100K

-4K

Oct 05

08:30

Unemployment Rate

Sep

4.7%

4.6%

Oct 05

08:30

Hourly Earnings

Sep

0.3%

0.3%

Oct 05

08:30

Avg. Work Week

Sep

33.8

33.8

Oct 05

15:00

Consumer credit

Aug

$9.5B

$7.5B


As reported this morning in pre-market, the weekly initial jobless claims for the week ended September 19th rose to 317k, up from the previous reading of 301k and slightly higher than consensus (310).

Earnings

Companies reporting earnings in after hours include RIMM. RIMM reported EPS of $0.50 vs $0.49 Reuters consensus; revs $1.37 bln were basically in line with $1.36 bln Reuters consensus. The initial reaction was a swoon down to the $93.00 level, however the stock has recovered and closed the AH session at $98.55.

In the conference call, company said, "RIMM's Q2 results were exceptionally strong on all metrics including revenue, subscriber account additions and net income.

International markets now represent about 32% of subs with non-enterprise subs now over 30%. Slower summer seasonality did not strongly affect results. Pearl drives a larger percentage of new subs vs. upgrades than many of their other products. Blackberry Unite is designed to allow small groups such as a family or SOHO to stay connected with each other and easily coordinate personal and business activities. Blackberry Unite software will be offered as a free download that provides groups of up to five users with mobile access to share calendars, pictures, music, documents and desktop content through BlackBerry smart phones... Blackberry Unite software should be available for free download later this fall

Receiving early indications that enterprises are considering replacing cellular phones with voice enabled BlackBerry smart phones. Q2 ASPs were $353 due to the mix of handsets shipped in the quarter and they expect ASPs in Q3 to be ~$340. Canadian dollar strength is raising their payroll expense but say overall impact is relatively minimal and they are hedging their exposure. Inventories were up to $301 mln vs $259 mln in Q1. They view the average useful life of a blackberry at about 1.5-2 yrs. Overall saying they have more cash flow then they can comfortably use and that they are getting to the point where they need to begin to discuss ways to return cash to shareholders via buybacks or dividends.


Other Technicals:

NVLS spiked $0.70 in late day trade to close at $28.02. Base & Break above $28.25 on the daily timeframe.




Companies moving in after hours trading in reaction to earnings: Trading Down: ZZ -6.8%; LWSN -5.9%; RIMM -2.3%... Trading Up: CPRT +2.3% (increases stock repurchase program for an additional 20 mln shares); SRX +2.3% (announces Department of Justice awards $59 mln task order); HBHC +1.9% (will replace Guitar Center in the S&P SmallCap 600); PLL +1.7% (reports prelim sales above consensus); DLTR +1.2% (authorizes additional $500 mln share repurchase program); COHR +1.0% (receives expected letter from NASDAQ); MYL +0.9% (settles its first-to-file opportunity on Levetiracetam with UCB)... Trading Down: SPRT -17.7% (adjusts Q3 guidance, lowers FY07 guidance); TLAB -6.8% (sees Q3 EPS and revs below consensus); SNUS -3.1% (discloses in an 8-K that on Oct 3, Bayer notified co that it has terminated its agreement because the phase 3 pivotal trial of the Product did not meet its primary endpoint); MED -1.7% (lowers FY07 guidance, says new advertising campaign launched in Sept proving successful); AZPN -1.2% (receives staff determination from Nasdaq); HMY -0.9% (Last of 3,200 miners rescued from South African gold mine -- DJ); SCUR -0.9% (re-affirms guidance and announces other corporate matters); AA -1.0% (announces it is near a definitive agreement to sell its Automotive Castings business and should close that transaction by the end of the yr).

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Jamie,
I did a backtest analysis of the chart from your site. Thanks for the great site.

http://thetradingdigest.com/blog/2007/10/04/what-does-a-historical-backtest-tell-us-from-this-chart/

Dave