Sunday, October 14, 2007

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Weekend Update


The NASDAQ snapped back quickly on Friday following Thursday's sell-off. The key catalysts were a benign PPI inflation reading for the month of September, as well as favorable retail sales, and the real kicker was tech M&A with Oracle's (ORCL) bid for BEAS. However, the early bounce was followed by a narrow range chop on much lighter volume to end the week. Advancers outpaced decliners (1841/1120) with new highs outpaced new lows (103/67).

BIIB was up 3.4% on the session and halted AH. A statement from the company was issued :

Co announced that its Board of Directors has authorized management to evaluate whether third parties would have an interest in acquiring the Co at a price and on terms that would represent a better value for its stockholders than having the Co continue to execute its strategy on a stand-alone basis. The Board emphasized that Biogen Idec's strategy is working and generating strong operating and financial performance. The Board noted that it is confident that the Co's business outlook, described in BIIB's press release on September 6, will result in attractive value for stockholders. Nevertheless, to determine whether potential strategic interest on the part of major pharmaceutical companies might result in superior value in the current environment, the Board has authorized management to explore interest in a transaction with BIIB. In addition, the Co disclosed it has received expressions of interest, including one from investor Carl Icahn. The Co does not intend to disclose further information regarding the status of its evaluation until the process has been completed.

BIIB charts Before and After the announcement:

Daily closes at $69.43

AH closes at $81.60



BIDU tagged the rising 20 DMA in early weakness but managed to get bid up a bit in mid-afternoon after Screamer, aka Cramer, pumped it on CNBC saying it's going to $500.00.

On Wednesday and Thursday retailers reported September Same Store Sales. Here is a summary of which co's beat/missed by the most, and how their stocks subsequently reacted. The co's that beat September Same Store Sales ests include (listed according to the magnitude of the beat): Buckle (BKE) +10.9% vs. +2.0% consensus, stock gapped up 2.1% to open at $38.93 and closed up 8.4% to $41.34... Zumiez (ZUMZ) +13.9% vs. +6.3% consensus, stock gapped up 9.3% to open at $51.80 and closed up 6.8% to $50.63... Deb Shops (DEBS) +3.8% vs. +1.0% consensus, stock gapped down to open at $27.11 and closed down 0.6% to $27.05... Stage Stores (SSI) +2.3% vs. +0.0% consensus, stock gapped up 2.1% to open at $18.10 and closed up 8.4% to $19.01... BJ's Wholesale (BJ) +3.9% vs. +2.0% consensus, stock gapped up 0.6% to open at $37.34 and closed up 0.3% to $37.22... The co's that missed September Same Store Sales ests include (listed according to the magnitude of the miss): Cato (CTR) --7.0% vs. -0.8% consensus, stock gapped down 2.8% to open at $20.01 and closed down 7.4% to $19.06... Sharper Image (SHRP) -21% vs. -13.3% consensus, stock gapped down 1.3% to open at $3.70 and closed down 12% to $3.31... Bon-Ton Stores (BONT) -7.1% vs. -2.0% consensus, stock gapped down 0.7% to open at $22.88 and closed down 2% to $22.59... J.C. Penney (JCP) -4.6% vs. +0.0% consensus, stock gapped down 5.0% to open at $64.59 and closed down 7.0% to $63.27... Stein Mart (SMRT) -9.1% vs. -4.5% consensus, stock gapped down 0.6% to open at $7.64 and closed down 4.0% to $7.39.


Co's reporting earnings for the week of Oct 15-19: Monday: C, ETN, MAT, JNC, GWW, ADTN, BMI, DNA, RBN, SONC ... Tuesday: AOS, DPZ, FRX, JNJ, SVU, USB, WFC, CBSH, DAL, AMB, CHB, FSSI, INTC, PHHM, RLRN, STX, STLD, YHOO... Wednesday: ABT, MO, ASML, BLK, CIT, KO, ITW, LCRY, MAN, MI, NTRS, PJC, UTX, ADS, ALL, CTXS, CBST, DTLK, HWAY, ISIL, LEG, MOGN, NVEC, PLCM, TER, WM, WDFC... Thursday: SHLM, ASD, BK, BAX, BBT, BBW, CHZ, CY, DJ, LLY, FCS, IEX, IONA, MHP, NOK, NVS, NUE, PFE, SAP, LUV, STJ, SPWR, UTEK, WYE, AMD, CERN, CREE, GILD, GOOG, INFA, ISRG, MOLX, PKTR, PMCS, SNDK, XLNX, ZHNE... Friday: MMM, ACO, BSX, CAT, HOG, KNSY, OSTK, SLB, WL. N.B. - This is not a complete list. Companies highlighted in blue are mainly bellwethers and/or of specific interest from a technical level.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: NHY -39.6%, EPEX -34.6%, KMGB -32.9%, OXM -28%, CWTR -27.2%, IBAS -26.1%, SNTA -20.5%, ASTIZ -20.3%, PRFT -19.3%, FMP -18.7%, RT -18.6%, CDS -17.4%, MWRK -15.8%, NURO -15.1%, IMB -14.5%, WHQ -14%, TMA -13.9%, NGA -14%, MW -13.6%, SKX -13.6%, TUES -13.5%, ABD -13.3%, CTCT -13.2%, TWB -13.3%, PMI -13.1%, ALVR -13.1%, MCHP -13%, MR -12.9%, DSL -12.7%, JWN -12.6%, POZN -12.4%, SBCF -12.1%, FRO -12%, RVI -11.9%, CBF -12%, RHY -11.8%, BECN -11.7%, CCRN -11.5%, USAP -11.4%, MTG -11.4%, PSS -11.3%, UXG -11%, ASTI -11%.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: STV +70.7%, CTEL +70.2%, SFBC +62%, HLCS +45.9%, QXM +42.5%, SEED +40.4%, BEAS +33.6%, HSWI +28.5%, NINE +27%, LLNW +24.3%, AXR +23.9%, VSEC +23.6%, MNG +23.5%, LNOP +23%, HIHO +22.9%, GSOL +22.7%, PARL +22.5%, MTL +22.3%, LONG +20.9%, DRYS +20.8%, JADE +20.7%, TBSI +20.6%, XIDE +20.4%, BAGL +20.2%, BZP +20%, ESEA +20%, GROW +19.7%, GMO +19.6%, GVP +19.6%, PRGN +19.1%, MTRX +18.6%, VNDA +18.8%, SLRY +18.8%, MBLX +19.2%, BCSI +18.4%, FREE +18.4%, WX +18.2%, ADY +18.1%, GIGM +17.9%, MOS +17.7%, EXM +17.6%, ASYS +17%, BOBJ +17%, AKAM +16.9%, NGPS +16.9%, MEE +16.7%, YTEC +16.8%, SCOR +16.8%, CSUN +16.2%, ANPI +16.2%, ANW +16.1%, SA +16.1%, SNP +16%, COGN +16%, VC +16%, ABM +15.8%, XING +15.8%.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

What is your portfolio's return, Y.T.D., for 2007?

TJ said...

WSW is a trading blog not an investment blog.

Anonymous said...

Jamie: What is the difference between a "trading blog" and an "investment blog"? If you are trading you are investing and vice-versa. Are you saying: I am a "Wall St. Warrior" but I do not actively trade? Are you saying: If I see fundamentals that are so good I just can not spare any money to invest in stocks such as BKUNA, CP, IMH, WM, and others that have just 'rocked' over the past week? Or, are you saying: I enjoy stock technical analysis as a hobby and do not personally trade? Last: Are you saying: I would rather not divulge that information? Either answer is acceptable but to answer my original comment with such a flippant answer is just plain asinine!

TJ said...

No, Timothy,

Day trading is not investing, it's a business. I measure my performance on my P&L statement, not my ROI. I measure individual trade performance on the risk:reward ratio.

My long-term investment portfolio is separate and distinct from the trades discussed on the blog.

It's obvious you're not a regular reader here, otherwise you would understand that.