Sunday, November 11, 2007

Trade of the Day - Crocs, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:CROX)

A disappointing earnings report sent CROX into a free fall. Once it closed below its 200 DMA on the daily, it wasn't able to recapture it on a closing basis, carving out two narrow range inside bars (NRIBs) on declining volume. Despite being oversold the NRIBs in the lower half of the previous WRB were signalling more selling to come - CROX is a WL stock and it was a HCPG pick as well.


As you can see from the 15 minute timeframe above, CROX didn't waste any time on Thursday. The second bar manages to hold support on a closing basis, but the third bar closes into S2 (red line). The fourth bar retests former support, but prints a long upper shadow signalling a failure. I shorted a break of the fourth bar low as the down sloping 5 period ema was in very close proximity. I took a partial after three WRBs and covered the balance after it reversed sharply on higher volume.

On Friday CROX set up another trade, this time a bullish flag BO. I took a partial as price rallied into the down sloping 50 MA and exited the balance when resistance at the blue line held on the first test.

The above chart is the Canadian RIMM chart on the TSE for Thursday which is almost identical to the NASDAQ chart except for price.

I was looking to short on a break of a bearish flag, but it didn't break on the fourth bar as planned so I waited thinking it might print a few inside bars. Instead it went into offset mode which was a bit confusing especially with a green hammer. However, the green hammer didn't follow through and was offset a while later with a red hanging man. I shorted as price confirmed and broke below the hanging man and locked in some profit after three WRBs. The rest of the trade was text book - keep moving stop just above previous bar high.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jamie,

Nice job on RIMM. I also saw that consolidation (clearer to me on 30min), but could not find a good LR entry point. Extended consolidations tend to erode my confidence unless they consol down to a very tight range. Before I know it they break out without me.

This weekend I talked with a user of eSignal Advanced GET. It appears to rely heavily on Fib retrace & extension levels and similar Gann theory. Have you ever tryed the GET version? I suppose it is an add-on or more complex version of the basic eSignal software.

TJ said...

Thanks Jim,

No, I haven't experimented with eSignal's advanced GET. I'm just a basic subscriber for now. I will look into it when I have more free time.

Anonymous said...

Hi Jamie,
You kept moving your stop just above previous bar high for RIMM. However, each bar is quite WR and spans a few dollars. If you get stopped out, you would have gave away too much profits. What's your thought on this?

YR

TJ said...

YR,

I agree but I had already booked a partial to protect profits. Wild price swings are the norm after/during Fed speak and Big Ben was on so that's why I chose to manage the second half text book style.