Monday, January 14, 2008

Dummy Gapper Trade of the Day - WellCare Health Plans, Inc. (Public, NYSE:WCG)

WCG gapped open and broke out of a C&H pattern on the daily chart below. After taking out the ORH it extended 38% and retraced back to the base of the ORH. The ORH held as support through a lengthy sideways consolidation. Finally, it regained the 5 period ema and carved out 2 NRIB (inside the previous WRB, but 2nd inside bar is not inside the first). The price/volume contraction set off a parabolic move (easier to see on 5 minute time frame).


I'm going to follow-up on this one to see if we get 100% fib ext. on the daily C&H pattern.


VCLK, another gapper from the Briefing list, set up a C&H pattern and extended 100% from the low of the cup to the base of the handle.

8 comments:

Dinosaur Trader said...

I watched that WCG go nuts. A few guys I trade with started shorting it over $57 and had some pain and nerves to deal with.

Overall, I think they made money, but I'm not sure it was worth it.

It was a wild one.

-DT

TJ said...

DT,

My rule of thumb for Price/volume expansion after 2NRIBs is 3 WRBs on 15 min. timeframe. I wanted to start booking profits at $57.00 but I was only a few minutes into my third 15 min. bar, so I stuck with my rule and hung on.

Anonymous said...

Jamie,

That was a great exit in WCG. You are an excellent long side player.

My latest "highly selective" gap up filter in TI produced 20 today, 10 of which were: VCLK, POT, SNDK, TRA, MOS, HP, LPL, WCG, AMP and ACS. It was a beautiful MOSIAC of gap up picks. [In small print: the other 10 were junk and the market was up big :) ]
Unfortunately, I was working the job.

Anonymous said...

Nice trade Jamie. Do you only day trade or do you also have longer term investments? I'm currently in 50% cash but still have a decent chunk in the market across a bunch of mutual funds. I'm tempted to sell more given the bearish signs...What your opinion on the overall market?

TJ said...

Thanks Jim,

I too was busy this am on the job. Ran my scan late morning with only a few similar names from your scan.

TJ said...

PN,

I am 35% cash in my long term-investments. I'm going to ride out the storm because it's too hard to time the markets. Bear markets are generally much shorter duration than bull markets. I suspect the NAZ will bottom out around 2200 (38% retracement of the move from the 2002 lows).

OONR7 said...

jamie... with WCG, did you have any concern going long after it already hit the fib. ext.?

TJ said...

OONR7,

My concern was focused on the ORH. As long as price held above support of the ORH, I was interested in a possible second BO attempt. The morning Fib ext. was like any morning swing high and could act a resistance.