Sunday, April 06, 2008

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Resistance Overhead



The jobs data came in worse than expected on Friday (payrolls -80k, the worst since March 2003 vs. consensus -50k and unemployment of 5.1% vs. consensus of 5.0%) but the stock indices held up relatively well off the open with a mixed start and only limited morning pressure. The Fed made it clear prior to the release of the reports that they will be ready to act forcefully which helped to mitigate the early pressure.

Cont'd

Technically no damage was done on the retreat as the NASDAQ extended the sideways consolidation off Wednesday's high. A steady rally off the morning low into the afternoon resulted in a new weekly high, but that was it for the bulls on the day as late session/week profit taking, trimmed the gains. Major sector winners were led by Coal +5.5%, Steel +3.1%, and Clean Energy +3.1%.

I expect the market to take a breather coming into resistance, after the sizable gains off of the March lows. The 15 min. chart clearly shows negative divergence of both the RSI and MACD to higher prices. The McClellan oscillator is overbought and we need to consolidate/retrace before attempting to take out resistance, otherwise it will likely fail.

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage gain over the last five sessions include: IPCS +67%, PMII +51%, USU +42%, VRTX +40%, OWW +39%, GHM +38%, ITMN +37%, HA +35%, TLB +35%, ANST +34%, NXTM +32%, ESI +32%, XIN +31%, CECO +31%, SPF +30%, COCO +29%, DDS +29%, EXFO +28%, CIT +28%, NEWS +28%, JTX +27%, MEE +27%, IDIX +26%, TRR +26%, SFI +25%, HOV +25%, CTDC +25%, BZH +24%, MU +23%, SLM +23%, CLAY +23%, LDK +23%, CAO +23%, PGNX +23%, MRB +22%, CSUN +22%, MF +22%, IDRA +22%, BLUD +22%, DRAX +22%, ONNN +22%, MTH +22%, XING +22%, SNDK +22%, PIR +22%, SOLF +21%, TSL +21%, ADY +21%, CRD.B +21%, BX +21%, NT +21%, YGE +21%

Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include
: VCGH -27%, OFIX -24%, FRP -22%, LOJN -18%, IUSA -18%, RVBD -18%, SGP -17%, DMAN -16%, SLRY -16%, FXP -15%, PAY -15%, CHRD -15%, FED -14%, XRIT -14%, SGP-B -13%, SKF -13%, TSFG -13%, SMN -13%, AZZ -13%, SRS -13%, RICK -12%

Companies reporting earnings the week of April 7th-11th include: Monday: AA... Tuesday: CHTT, LAYN, MSM, and ZZ... Wednesday: ACGY, CC, GBX, ISCA, MERX, PGR, SGR, APOG, and CBK... Thursday: FCSX, PIR, RAD, DNA, and INTV... Friday: FAST, GE, and PKX.

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