Friday, May 16, 2008

Dummy Trades - Follow the Market

Today I tried to stay in tune with the market as much as possible instead of putting my personal bias to work on the short side. As you can see from the E mini NASDAQ futures chart above, the easy money in the early going was on the short side. We gapped up and retraced 62% of the move from yesterday's low to the ORH. After that it was back filling until the late session rally back up to yesterday's highs.

My first trade was ESRX break of inside bar. Cover as price retests yesterday's low.

The next trade was LEH. This time, I tried to get in as close as possible to the whole $ number because it lined up with yesterday's afternoon base. This gave me a tighter stop as there was no IB anyway. I took a partial as price fell into the next level base from yesterday and was stopped out on the balance.

HANS was a break of 2 IBs . Small move again today but less chop. Maybe the third trade will be the charm as the daily chart is still lining up for a bear flag BO.

I traded exclusively my own WL today, except SNDA which was a carryover gapper from yesterday. This was an inverse C&H pattern which extended the full 100%. I took a partial after 3 consecutive WRBs.

GRMN has been in rally mode for several days and I finally decided to join in. I entered on a base within the bigger C&H pattern. I exited at the 100% Fib. extension level thinking that was the end of the move. The 100% level was just pennies away from the daily 50 SMA and I was sure that it would provide resistance as it hasn't been touched since December 2007. Yeah, sometimes I over analyze. In hindsight, GRMN had just come out of a four bar consolidation, so it should have been good for 3 WRBs as opposed to the one that I exited on. Next time I'll partial out instead of anticipating.



DRYS - 2 NRIB s- Took a partial after 1 pt. as price came into resistance and stopped out on the balance.

6 comments:

Admin said...

Wow Jamie .... nice trades !

TJ said...

Thanks Fred. Busy day, feels good.

Anonymous said...

Hey Jamie,

You were busy on OEx. Your trading is brimming with confidence. I had my best day of last 2 weeks. All of these came off of my 'gap up + above avg volume' scanner - MTL, TEL, EXM. Notice the 2 NR consol bars near ORH in both TEL and EXM.

TJ said...

Thanks Jim,

Hey that's great, are you using TI to scan for gaps?

Intra day, I use stockcharts.com to scan for gaps but today's list was so long. I did have MTL and EXM on HCPG usual suspects list, but TEL did not show up on my scan. MTL and EXM both up > 7% on the day. I was sorry I missed MTL and BG (2 IBs on daily from last night's scan). Can't get them all.

TJ said...

Jim,

The last two months, I have found that the Thursday prior to OPEX is choppier than the exp. day. Not sure why, but today was a welcome relief after yesterday's chop.

Anonymous said...

Jamie,

Yes, I am using a TI combo scan for gappers with > avg volume and NR7 bars. Scanner hits:

MTL - 11:00 bar
EXM - 12:00 bar
TEL - 11:15 and 12:00 bars

A quick glance at the daily showed that TEL was somewhat of a trap play - gap up following a-b-c correction down in overall uptrend.

I usually only get to check the scanner(s) during certain periods during the day. Sometimes there is nothing but junk. Other times a nugget or three.

Good observation on the Thurs prior - the fade technique (like you tried yesterday) should work in general.