Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Gapper Dummy Trade - Deere & Company (Public, NYSE:DE)

DE was a Briefing.com earnings gapper this morning and had strong pre-market volume on my Trade-Ideas Scanner. This is how I select my gapper focus list. I look for big volume in pre-market because, presumably, it will continue into the trading session.

As you can see from the 15 minute chart above, DE broke down fairly quickly and I thought it might go without me. Luckily, we got a nice bear flag on the 5 minute time frame, and I was able to take a low risk entry on the bear flag BO. Stop above last red bar in the flag. It fell right into the 38% Fib. extension of the previous day to the 15 min. ORL and then bounced. (Trader-X knowledge).

A second trade was possible around midday when price failed to take out the 10 period EMA in a series of NR offsets. I had to leave shortly after 1:00, so I couldn't take advantage of the setup. Hope some of you were in there.


MOS was an HCPG trading list pick from last night's newsletter. These guys and gal are in the zone, they're on fire.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Jamie,

What TI filters do you use for pre-market gappers with volume? Here are my thoughts:

Heartbeat filter
Price > threshold
Avg Volume > threshold
Min Volume Today > 10%
Min/Max Pos in Prev Day's Range >< % thresholds

Anonymous said...

DE

sweet! partials in like 20 minutes.

nice trade

TJ said...

Jim,

At the moment, I'm using TI pre-defined scans. If you look at the down big in pre-market scan this am, you'll see that WFMI, JBX and DE had the most consecutive prints of stocks > 10.00. This strategy usually gives me a short list - avg. 10 gappers per day, so its not too time consuming to monitor their development.

Some of the high PM volume gappers break quickly so the lower time frame is a must.

I'm not sure of the exact settings, but you can tweak for your own purposes. It has been working well for me for several weeks. It also gives you last minute gappers with volume that often don't appear on the Briefing list. HOLX from a few weeks ago, for example, which is setting up to BO again.

TJ said...

Thanks QQQBall. Yeah, it's really nice to put one away so early in the session.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Jamie. Good info.

TJ said...

Yeah, giving away some my secrets.

Anonymous said...

No way to give away your biggest "secret" - discipline.

TJ said...

Thanks Jim,

That's true, I can't even sell that one.

Dinosaur Trader said...

Jamie,

Actually, I'll buy some of that discipline. How about I give you all my May profits for some?

-DT

TJ said...

DT,

Speaking of discipline, I wish I had the discipline not to forecast a bear until it was confirmed. Each time I predict the bears will regain control, we carve out a new high the very next day.

Don't overpay for discipline, at least not mine, not yet anyway!