Wednesday, July 02, 2008

NASDAQ Technical Picture - Bearish Outside Day




Commodities cratered off the open. Coal -14% and Steel -13% with Transports -4.3% (Airline -6.6, Rail -5.3%, Trucking -3.7%) were hit with very heavy selling and closed on their lows. Every coal/steel daily chart looks the same, an extreme WRB with a huge volume spike. Once the winners start breaking down, it should signal fear, but so far no sign of fear/panic in the VXN/VIX and no technical capitulation despite extreme oversold levels.

The NASDAQ is testing its pivot point and the DOW is testing a solid double bottom base dating back to the summer of 2006. I suspect we'll get a technical bounce back up to the trend line very soon.

Economic calendar: Jobs data at 8:30 will likely set the tone for tomorrow's trade. ISM services at 10:00.

NVDA lowered Q2 revenue guidance after hours and the stock is down 20%.

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