Monday, November 24, 2008

Technical Picture - Bear Market Bounce In Play

Yesterday, we said we needed some follow through, more than on Nov. 13-14, to shake out the bears and begin a real Bear market rally. Today's action was perfect as we opened strong and rallied, holding former resistance into the close. The VIX finally broke out of the bearish flag pattern and looks poised to move lower.

The CBOE shows higher levels of open interest.

Economic Calendar: Chain deflator, prelim. GDP at 8:30 EST and Consumer confidence at 10:00. Not sure, but Obama might have another press conference tomorrow.

Friday's hanging man foreshadowed a pullback in the USD and it followed through with a sharp pullback today. The $CAD had a nice thrust moving out of a double bottom.

$USD weakness helped propel energy higher as anticipated.

Gold paused after tagging the downsloping 20 MA. Expect some consolidation at the resistance point.


Anonymous said...


Is Energy inversely related to USD, like gold?

Jamie said...


Yes, inverse relationships between $USD and commodities in general, including oil.

Dinosaur Trader said...

So you don't think that was it, eh? You think we eventually head below 7500?

I'm hoping that was it.


Jamie said...

Hey DT,

I'm with you, I HOPE this was it and expect we get a multi-week (into 2009) rally here. But the damage done over the course of the Bush administration has far reaching consequences, many of which have yet to surface. My target for the current bear market is a 50% extension of the S&P double top around 375.

Dinosaur Trader said...

Holy shit! 375?

Clusterstock had a link to an interview with a newsletter writer who was saying something similar.

If that's the case, truly there will be blood on the streets.