Monday, November 17, 2008

Technical Picture - Snooze Fest (OPEX Week)

A narrow range, low volume snooze fest typical of OPEX week. The key reversal day we talked about on Thursday is all but dead. We needed to see some follow through and we didn't get any. OPEX this week and Thanksgiving next week. Hmm, could be a good time for some vacation.

The VIX looks like it wants to retest the broken trendline. Watching the MACD - will the kiss turn into a crossover?

Negative divergence of the MACD implies weakness which leads us to suspect that the bullish pennant will fail and that the $USD will eventually retrace towards its trendline.

A pullback in the dollar could kick start stocks. Commodities and gold will move higher on dollar weakness, as well as companies which do a large portion of their business abroad.

2 comments:

Jim said...

Jamie,

Excellent big picture analysis. Thanks!

Jamie said...

Thanks Jim,

John Lee has an interesting scenario over at Weekly Technical Commentary. Also enjoy reading Cobra and Trader Mike for technical market views.