Thursday, December 18, 2008

Technical Picture - Bears Step Up

Narrow range chop and the typical midday drift/consolidation below intraday moving averages gave way to a wave of selling into support of previous day low. This accelerated following the report that S&P had revised its outlook for GE to negative.

The good news is that the VIX closed lower despite the sell-off. Financials GS and MS which reported earlier this week, held up well. After hours RIMM raised guidance but after the initial spike, the reaction was somewhat muted.

Tomorrow is options expiration.

USD bounced from support carving out a bullish piercing line. It may retrace back to retest broken trendline. If this happens expect weakness in dollar sensitive commodities. POT for example printed a bearish engulfing stick and is due for a retracement following a 30 pt. sprint off the lows.

Energy looks very weak despite OPEC measures to reduce production.

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