Monday, January 19, 2009

Technical Picture - Bearish Week Ends on Positive Note


Friday's opening strength quickly turned into a fade as financials could not maintain the upside bias because key names like JPM, BAC and C rolled over. Lots of opportunities to short financials. I traded V, MA, and MS for some nice gains.

But despite financial sector weakness, the markets were able to hold support from Thursday's late day retracement level and close strong. That gives us a follow through day on Friday after Thursday's reversal. The NASDAQ outperformed because it has few financial names compared to the broader markets.

Lots of earnings this week starting with IBM tomorrow and AAPL on Wed.. Check the earnings calendar for your WL stocks.

IBD says we are in a correction but acknowledges that the markets were resilient near the end of the week. Elliott wavers predict we will carve out a lower high before the markets stage a retest of the November lows. Earnings could help that scenario along, or not!


$USD looks like a bearish rising wedge. I expect it to test the lower channel line early this week.



2 comments:

anarco said...

Jamie~
The ABX chart is extremely tempting for the retirement account. The $36 area is also the 50% RZ from the previous "year" high, to the previous "year" low. And it also makes sense that the dollar will go down in the next few months and gold will go up.
I could be wrong too.

Jamie said...

Anarco,

It is very tempting and I agree, but it is a contrarian view from all the financial pundits who predict USD will continue to rise. Let's give it some time to develop.