Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Cup & Handle - Monsanto Company (Public, NYSE:MON)

MON from the HCPG focus list, carved out a C&H pattern. It didn't quite reach full extension. I exit when it it printed a lower high.

MON reports tomorrow before the open. MOS reported today after the close and is slightly lower following a $0.03 earnings miss.

The Agchem space was conspicuous in its underperformance yesterday, but today they rose to the top of the usual suspects list on the open. So I stuck with them in the early going. POT was good for two longs and one short.


GS has been on a tear since HCPG highlighted it as a focus stock out of the base. I thought we were done for now yesterday when it closed at the 62% retracement level of the last leg down.

I couldn't resist buying this ascending triangle for a nice rally into the close.

According to the daily, we are hitting resistance (black line), so expect some consolidation/retracement as traders digest the move.

9 comments:

Highchartpatterns said...

You trade our own list better than we do -- as usual great trading Jamie.

Jamie said...

Thanks guys,

Great job compiling the lists! GS was my big winner over the holidays. You guys nailed it before everyone else jumped in.

Jim said...

Yes, very nice Jamie.

JTT said...

Happy New Year Jamie & Jim,
I have a question for one or both of you. First of all I would like to say that I spent most of last year trying to catch portions of moves that were set up on the larger term charts by following the shorter term charts (maybe 2/3trades/day). However also managing a household with 3 year old twin boys I am disappointed in my outcome. To sum it up I think I acted too emotionally in my exits of winners and couldn't step back and let them run. So this year I have amended my business plan to trade set-ups on the weekly/daily charts and set my entries and management off of the 30min chart (1-5trades/week is my goal). I'm hoping that the larger timeframes will give me the harmony between trading and my other responsibilities that I'm looking for. Now having said all of that, I notice that the trades that you post are nice set-ups on the longer term timeframes and continue the trend for the next day or few days after your exit. My question to you is, do you also swing trade the majority of these set-ups if they're trading in the "sweet spot" on the larger timeframes and then use your daytrading account to take a daytrade as well. I notice once in a while you guys post swing trades but for the most part your blog posted trades are day trades. I know you keep watching trades in active stage 2/4, but is a portion of your trade left on to run the course? As always thanks for all your thoughts and work you both put into the blog.

JTT said...

Forgot to include the second part of my question above. In the swing trades that you do take, what's your criteria for keeping you in the trade and riding it out and what timeframe are you using to management it with. Thanks:0)

Jamie said...

Michael,

A very sobering video. The V shaped stock market recovery is not matched by a V shaped economic recovery. The jobs recovery, when it takes shape, is likely to be spotty. The 10+ years for full economic recovery is a very real possibility. Japan went through it and we, in Canada had a similar period of debt recovery during the Chr├ętien years. The differences between Canada and the U.S, is that we were not in a crisis mode, and we had a long-term plan.

Chr├ętien and Finance minister Martin, reduced Canada's debt by 86% and concurrently reduced taxes by 100 billion in 5 years. How did they do it? They cut federal services, most notably in health care.

The Obama administration is trying to accomplish too many things with too little money, and over time, it could manifest itself into patchwork of dissatisfaction. I hope that's not the case, but just saying it could be.

Jamie said...

Happy New Year JTT,

The last two year have provided us with the best stock trading environment since the tech bubble of Y2K. Yet, many traders are dissatisfied with their results.

2008 was my best year so for day trading. Markets fall faster than they rise, so we had plenty of opportunities for big profits on the short side.

This year, once the initial V shaped bottom was set, we spent endless weeks in mini-ranges waiting for a correction. We never corrected, so we become more and more cautious with each new consolidation range. My day trading results this year are not as good as last year. The higher we climb the wall of worry, the fewer swings trades I take.

The GS trades highlighted in this post were strictly day trades. I was too busy over the holidays with other things to spend time analyzing swing trade strategies.

Now getting to your original questions, I usually take partial profits on swing trades after 1-2 WRBs on the daily. After that, let profits run until the target is reached or price falls back to BE. The majority of my swings trades are in gold and commodities - mostly Canadian stocks which trade on both TSX and NYSE. So most of the day trades I post on this blog are not simultaneous swing trades. The swing trade account is idle far too often and that's an area I need to focus on this year as well.

I always use multiple timeframes to manage all my trades. For swing trades I like the daily/60 and 15 minutes. I don't use the 30 and 10 minute because I am used to the 15 minute. My eyes are trained to spot setups on 15 minutes and when I look at the 10 minute, it looks completely foreign to me.

Jim said...

JTT,

Happy New Year to you too!

If several factors lineup (to increase probabilities), I will swing trade a partial position as an extension of a daytrade. I want:
1) A good daily chart - just breaking out of base or consolidation, not extended, etc.
2) To be trading in the direction of the general market trend (bull market longs and bear market shorts).
3) The trade to close in my favor (prefer a very strong/weak close) on the day of entry.

I look to S/R and extensions of prior swings on the daily chart for profit taking zones. I often look to take profits on the day following a WR trend day in my direction - on an exceedance of the trend day H/L, again in my direction.

My biggest trades (dollar wise) typically come from swing trades (only a few of them). I had a monster BIDU swing trade in 2009. Just a hand full of well managed swing trades can make a huge difference in your bottom line. Likewise, a few poorly managed swing trades (easy thing to fall into) can do serious damage.

Hope this helps.

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