Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Swing Trader - Barrick Gold Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:ABX); Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA) (Public, NYSE:POT)

Two swing trades short ABX. The first was a short following failure to BO on test of previous high. We noted on July 6th that the gold hedge against a weak Euro was out of favor because the Euro reversal had proven quite strong. I waited for price to retrace 50% and I covered as price approached 200 SMA.

The second trade, depicted below is the same principle, 50 % retrace of last leg down (points A to B). Now price has taken out the 200 SMA and we are targeting point C - 50% extension. ABX reports tomorrow in pre-market. I hope price will not regain 200 SMA, but if it does I will cover half.

POT is a swing long, the day after markets reversed. I sold half today as price retested the base ahead of earnings tomorrow morning. I'm not optimistic on favorable earnings, but I think the bottom is in and the sector will continue higher based on crop commodity prices and severe global weather conditions.


胡維倫 said...


john said...

Nice trade Jamie.

Re ABX: note that the metal itself is right now at a 50% retrace of its recent move up and may turn here.

...on ag, check out 30 asc triangle on MOS chart.

Jamie said...

Thanks John,

GLD is in a technical support zone, but I believe any short-term bounce is a shorting opp.

Gold and $USD have coupled vs. stronger $Euro and the trajectory is down. The $USD broke its trendline and didn't even retest.

Both gapping lower this AM. ABX pre-market earnings strength will be offset somewhat by lower metal price.

MOS has a nice base. POT earnings beat but guidance was really weak. Waiting to see potential impact on sector.