Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Technical Picture - Market Retests the Base

The S&P rallied back up to the baseline (highs of the left shoulder) and price was firmly rejected, resulting in a fast move down to the trendline. Price tested the support of the breakout point twice with no traction. We closed below the trendline on the cusp of the 5 day MA. If price fails to hold support tomorrow, the SPY could easily break lower - next supports at $112.00, followed by the gap fill at $111.50 as depicted on the chart below.

Over the past two sessions several leading stocks succumbed to profit taking - CRM, AKAM, NTAP APKT to name a few. When leading stocks slip, it usually means the market is tired and needs to rest.

Tomorrow's economic data should help set direction.

The Euro has broken out of a cup & handle pattern. The $USD continues lower.

Semis started to slip just shy of their 200 SMA.

Several important sectors have yet to breakout of their multi-month bases, including transports and financials. Financials are of particular concern as we can't seem to hold above the 200 SMA.

Trade of the day - AKAM - Over a two day period, price made multiple attempts to break resistance but failed. Yesterday, we closed on the trendline and 5 day MA (orange MA). Price breached the trendline and lost the 5 day MA in opening trade and fell through to second level support.

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