Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Technical Picture - Trend Reversal

September got off to a strong start as participants ignored the weak ADP data in favor of strong economic data out of China and Australia overnight. At 10:00 EST, equities squeezed higher on much better than expected ISM data. Most of the day was spent in a narrow, sideways action in the upper end of the day's range, with fresh session highs hitting the tape towards the end of the day.

Sector leadership was virtually across the board with oil, industrials, and healthcare leading the way. Down ticks in treasuries, gold and gold miners. Volume was higher than yesterday, resulting in an accumulation day. Tomorrow's economic calendar is full, with the all important jobs data on Friday. Let's see if we can hold on to these gains into the long weekend. We need a follow through day in the next 2-3 days in order to confirm a trend reversal.

The CRM bull flag (Darvas Box consolidation) broke out on high volume today. On the 15 minute timeframe below, I left my Fibs from the earnings gap day intact. The opening range moved into the upper Fib. line. After a short consolidation, price broke resistance and trended higher. Partial profit and swinging the balance.

SU on the TSX broke resistance in early trade and trended all day. This is a swing trade in my retirement account. Preliminary target is top of triangle, secondary target will be established if we successfully BO of the chart pattern.

TCK, again the TSX chart which has much cleaner lines than the NYSE TCK chart. We closed at resistance of the trading range. I'm looking to see if we consolidate in the upper portion of today's range and then B&B, targeting the Fib extensions.


Anonymous said...


Nice call in CRM. I caught a good chunk of the move.

Jamie said...

Hey Jim,

Good job. I'm still holding the swing portion of my CRM trade.

Kurven said...

the s&p500 looks like a head and shoulders wait for a confirmation break in the 1030-1040 area.