Thursday, October 07, 2010

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed Ahead of Jobs Data

Uncertainty ahead of tomorrow's jobs data. New highs in pre-market/open (better than expected initial claims) failed as participants didn't want to get ahead of themselves. The DOW 11000 psych level was tested on the open, but the $USD was bid higher and gold, oil, and commodities sold off.

The choppy pullback and strong retracement off the lows implies limited selling pressure. However, at the end of the day we have either a hammer or a hanging man. Employment data at 8:30 EST, will set tone.

Emini futures trade. Short on failure to hold support. Partial into next support level (1st tick reading below -1000) and exit balance as price extends 38% and 2nd tick reading below -1000.

The $USD caught a bid after gapping lower on overnight weakness. Participants were quick to take profits in gold/silver, oil, and commodities. Minor support level in $USD coincides with more significant levels in GLD and OIL. Not sure we're going to get a big lift in the $USD from this level, so we may see higher GLD and OIL in the short-term.

Corn setting up an ambush, could weaken Ags.
Watching Broker/Dealer for B&B.

Banks basing at key technical level.


Ashish said...

Hi Jamie,

I have observed that you often buy or short the break of PDH/PDL in the opening minutes (like your AGU short trade on 10/4). I was wondering if you could share your thoughts on how you pick a stop loss, given the very high volatility in the opening minutes.


Jamie said...

Hi Ash,

Good question. If there is a narrow pre-market range, I use that plus 10 cents. If there's no pre-market range,as in the case of AGU 10/04, I use previous bar high plus 10 cents. I also respect half and whole dollar levels. So if the stop is set at $28.98 for example, I'll move it a few pennies above the whole dollar level to $29.02.