Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Technical Picture - Markets Mixed

The markets gapped higher on the open, but the gap was quickly faded. Prices extended lower, beyond the gap fill, to first level supports. Prices stabilized and started to rally mid-morning, eventually extending to fresh 52 week highs. The S&P tagged 1250 which is the full measured move of the inverse H&S bottom from last summer as depicted on the chart above. The DOW did not confirm as it was dragged down by AXP weakness on a downgrade.

On the SPY 60 minute chart below, we see that prices are still consolidating within a tight range. Watch the MACD as it coils on the signal line, which could lead to a big move on light volume.


$USD still strong.

Oil has carved out a bull flag and looks ready to BO. A full measured move on a successful BO, should see $97.00.

CNQ flagging.

Copper and coal are bullish and flagging.

Trades

AMRN reached the full measured move of the bull flag pattern today and I sold more shares. I'm still holding 20% and will add to the position on a pullback. There's no resistance on the weekly timeframe until we reach $10.00.

AMZN was a HCPG pick. I waited for a low risk entry after the retest of the BO point. Did not want to trade this on the open (too risky). I'm glad I waited.

POT - buy support and sell at round $ level.

CHK was an ambush trade.


NQ formed a nice continuation triangle after the initial rally from support. I took a partial when the symmetrical target was reached. Price consolidated again in a tighter coiling formation before going vertical for the last sprint of the day. This was my favorite trade of the day.

Posted a couple of charts on Chart.ly FWLT and FAST. FST also looks good.

7 comments:

chin said...

Jamie,

I liked your AMZN trade. Did you sell or are you still holding the same ?

Thanks

Jamie said...

Thanks Chin,

That was a low risk entry (NRB). Just a day trade, markets are very extended here.

Ashish said...

Hi Jamie,

Could you please explain why you decided to place buy stop above PDH at the open for FWLT. I didn't see any significant pre-market action near PDH.

Thanks,
Ash

Jim said...

Hey Jamie,

Nice call/trade in FWLT. I have been swing long from the previous daily chart pattern (sideways consol to ~20 day EMA). Still long.

Jamie said...

Hi Ash,

Agree there was only 100 shares traded in pre-mkt, but FWLT announced that one of its subs had been awarded a large contract from Kuwait Intl Petrol so there was no doubt it would attempt to BO from the daily flag.

Jamie said...

Hey Jim,

Great trade! What's your target?

Jim said...

Just trend trading it into end of year. Took piece off on test above $35 (Jan 2010 high). Trailing stops on remaining pieces ($33.86 and $32.98).