Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Technical Picture - SPY 50 SMA Holds as Resistance

Markets gapped up and filled the gap from the previous day close before rallying to retest Friday's highs and the downsloping, daily 50 SMA. Price consolidated for several hours in the top of the range before selling off one day ahead of the FOMC statement. Selling was aggressive leaving us with a tweezer top reversal pattern and shooting star.

Part of the problem was lack of resolution concerning the Greece/Troika dealings. Last I read, they have agreed to meet again in October.

As I was watching the price action on the 5 minute chart above, I thought we could have one of two scenarios:

  1. Failed BO which could shorted.
  2. The 50 SMA crossing above the 20 EMA and price breaks support.
The latter played out perfectly for a nice short into the close.

On the 15 minute timeframe below, we see the possibility of a double top forming. A double top breakdown would result in a fast move to the downside.

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