Sunday, October 02, 2011

Technical Picture - Very Bearish

On Sept. 22 we broke out of H&S pattern on decisive volume. From Sept. 23-27 we had a dead cat bounce on lower volume. Since then we have been pushing back down, ending last week on lows.

To calculate the measured move of the H&S pattern, we take the distance from the top of the head to the neckline (blue line) which is approx. 10 points and extend from the breakout point - approx. $116 and subtract to arrive at our target of $106. The August low is a psychologically significant level and its retest could produce a rip your face off, bear market rally (day trade).

Reading the stream this weekend I saw a lot outrageous predictions of gloom and doom based on the H&S pattern and the top that preceded it. I think some people are incorrectly drawing the neckline. We don't move a trendline unless we make a higher high, so the way I've drawn the neckline is technically correct.

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