Thursday, June 14, 2007

Dummy Trade of the Day - Autodesk, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ADSK)

Daily ADSK

15 Min. ADSK


An analyst downgrade put ADSK on the defensive with a gap down after a four day momo move. It struggled to recapture Tuesday's pivot high, but failed, setting up a nice dummy short in close proximity to the downsloping 5 period ema. I wish all my shorts were this easy. I took a partial after a 1 pt. gain. I didn't use Fibonacci because my target was the 20 MA from the daily timeframe $44.67. It tagged it to the penny, but I didn't want to make the same mistake as I did with AAPL yesterday. Shoulda, coulda, stuck with my intuition.


Interestingly enough, the 20 DMA ($44.67) is a perfect match with the 62% Fibonacci extension. I guess that's why Trader-X calls it magic!





17 comments:

OONR7 said...

nice Jamie... it set up nicely off the 5-min chart as well. I didn't manage the exit properly and left a lot on the table.

Jamie said...

Thanks OONR7,

I like your entry on the 5 min.

bl said...

Nice move. Noticed the 4/15" hanging man hit the 5 ema but in real time probably didn't until later. Perfect .62 retracement though.

Jamie said...

Bl,

Perfect 62% and I digressed a notch by not taking the exit.

bl said...

Say are you and nr7 working the charts togethor in different time frames but in different zones. CA FR. :) I looked at 24/7.com and put up charts of stocks they mentioned premkt: hoku clwr vtiv isil pgr ice ssw stp mnkd tasr irbt ceo rack ilmn dtv gmr bot bot bidu chl aapl fmcn bbnd ebay bsc dish zgen adbe vdsi gs sny. No doubt plenty of eyeballs ready to pull the trigger.

Jamie said...

BL,

Once in a while we trade the same stocks.

I caught a nice scalp 1 min, AAPL this morning - almost 2 pts. in 10 minutes - Buy stop order 117.27 at 9:40, order hit on next bar. Once it took out 119, I kept squeezing my stop tighter an tighter - Out at $119.18 at 9:50. Sweet.

Jamie said...

BL,
Checked out 24/7 wall st. That is a lot of charts to peruse before market open. Good site - lots of info Thanks.

bidmarket said...

Jamie,
Not that familiar with pivots. However, why do you only show Tuesday's pivot and not Wednesday's. Perhaps my ignorance is the reason.
Thank you
Bid

Jim C. said...

Is the "farewell" post by TraderX for real? Undertones of bad news from a doctor or something similar.

Jamie said...

Bid,

Normally I like to have have two points of reference (pivots, previous day high/low, etc.) on my trade setups. For ADSK I had 1. Tues. pivot high that was in play and, 2. the 20 day EMA was my target.

Wed.'s pivot low did act as support on the 8th bar and resistance in the afternoon. Good point, I should have posted it on the chart.

Jamie said...

Jim,

Looks real. I've noticed that Trader-X has not been posting as frequently in the last while.

He sounded great and very enthusiastic on those trader interviews he did recently.

Perhaps he's just tired of being a slave to the blog. In many respects, I can relate to that.

Whatever the reason, it's a HUGE LOSS for the trading community.

closetdaytrader said...

Jamie,

Thanks for the visit and encouragement! Much appreciated!

bl said...

Jaime,
If you are playing gap plays how many usually show up on your list? I have 34 gap plays usuallly premkt on a daily basis way too much. If I could just have 4-8 that would be the best or maybe 1-4 and devot all my attention to them. 31 from 24/7 is alot but had alot of movement more than the premkt scan that I use +/-2% gap. Nice AAPL trade.

Jamie said...

Welcome CDT.

Jamie said...

BL,

When the market gaps up like today, over 100. But I do pre-market search off of Briefing, IB, NASDAQ unusual vol. Trade_Ideas etc. I also look for upgrades and downgrades. That's how I found ADSK today, but it did show up on my scan as well. I try to focus on high pre-market volume, but ADSK caught my eye because it's one of my usual suspects.

Anonymous said...

Hi Jamie,
The ADSK gap was quite significant and I think you would usually use Fibonacci. What made you decide to use the 20DMA instead for the target?

Zen

Jamie said...

Zen,

I don't usually use Fibonacci when I'm trading my usual suspects watch list. ADSK is a watch list stock and I started focusing on the pivots and MAs instead of Fibonacci. This morning I had too many setups on the go and I cut corners a little bit.