AAPL finally set up a low risk short entry on a breach of the
ORL this afternoon. This was an easy trade to manage because the bears finally got aggressive with
AAPL. I just kept moving my stop 5 cents above the previous bar high until it capitulated at $106.50. I covered at $1o6.80 for an even 2 pt. gain. My risk was $0.40 which results in a 5R gain. Sweet!
My first long entry on
AMGN failed after taking out the morning high so I exited my full position. My second entry this afternoon had a longer basing period and a strong finish into the close which could bode well for a follow-up trade tomorrow.
AAPL finally set up a low risk short entry on a breach of the ORL this afternoon. This was an easy trade to manage because the bears finally got aggressive with AAPL. I just kept moving my stop 5 cents above the previous bar high until it capitulated at $106.50. I covered at $1o6.80 for an even 2 pt. gain. My risk was $0.40 which results in a 5R gain. Sweet!
My first long entry on AMGN failed after taking out the morning high so I exited my full position. My second entry this afternoon had a longer basing period and a strong finish into the close which could bode well for a follow-up trade tomorrow.
13 comments:
Nice spot on that AAPL trade. I have been in on a swing from 103 and finally took my profits at downswing of 109. It hit 108.95 and I was out. I didn't have enough courage in the moment to reverse and go short, as I should have picked up on this.
What do you see happening with this stock in the short-term? It's hard to tell with OE this friday.
Nice trade Jamie.
I am in the process of trying to do a little longer term short trade on AAPL as you may have seen from my blog.
ADD Trader
Nice one Jamie, I watched AAPL unfold as I am always watching it but was shy of taking it as AAPL always seem to go against me in whichever direction I trade it.
Greg, Congrats on the nice trade.
In the short-term I'm just expecting a normal retracement of the last leg up. So from the May 1st swing low around $98.50 to today's high of $110.20, a 38% retracement would fall in at $105.80. If we go to 62% then we're looking at $103.00. However, I'm not expecting this to happen in one fell swoop. AAPL is just too strong. Unless the market rolls over in a big way, I expect AAPL to hold its rising 10 day EMA on a closing basis tomorrow. I suspect it will carve out a lower high before it takes a swoon down to the 62% retracement level.
AAPL is in a confirmed uptrend and the best way to swing is on the long side. Shorting at overbought levels like I did today is a calculated risk. The next tradable dip will bring another opportunity on the long side.
Not sure what you mean by OE?
ADD Trader,
Nice shorting strategy with the call option safety net. What is your target on the longer-term short BTW?
Thanks Glenn,
Yesterday's hanging man-like candle alerted me that AAPL might come into some weakness today. I've been anticipating since last Thursday, but each day it closed higher.
Good question! A lot depends on if the market corrects here or not, but I don't think a re-test of the breakout around 97.60 is too much of a stretch. It lines up pretty nice with the 61.8% retracement level.
If you look at a chart of the NAZ going back to 04' (weekly), you can see we are at the top of a channel. We might break to the upside, but a re-test the mid point of that channel around 2372 is certainly plausible.
Of course I could never stay with a trade that long.
ADD
Nice picks today Jamie.
I had a similar reversal play today with DVA 15M/4B green hammer. Exited @ when gap filled. It was a very rare smooth ride to the exit both on the 15M and 5M.
WINN was my other big winner today but ride wasn't as smooth as DVA.
Congrats JR,
DVA - Tweezer bottom reversal pattern. I dream of these kinds of setups.
Great volume on both your trades!
As usual great trades!
How did you decide to exit where you did on your first AMGN trade?
Looks like it retraced back to the OR High, is that why you took early profits?
How did you determine it wasn't a normal retracement?
Much appreciated and keep up the good work.
Thanks Hennessy,
After taking out the morning swing high (blue line), price immediately fell back. I wasn't sure if this was a failure or if AMGN would fall into the midday dead zone. In either case, I didn't want to risk giving too much back, so I decided to close the position and come back to it later.
Jamie,
Please explain your logic of going long AMGN when you did? I see the retracement from the high and then a hammer. Did you go long on the bar following the hammer? And what led up to this?
Thanks,
TonyB
Hi Tony,
AMGN dipped below the psychologically significant round number $53.00 and immediately snapped back. On the 1 minute chart it formed a base at $53.11 and I placed a buy stop order 2 pennies above the base. At the moment of entry, I thought it might be a gap fade candidate. However, when it failed to stay above the early morning swing high, I took my profit.
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