Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Gapper Dummy Trade of the Day - Alpha Natural Resources, Inc. (Public, NYSE:ANR)

ANR gapped up on the open and quickly rose to the top of my Watch List in terms of % gain. I missed the open, so by the time I got back, it was already printing some red. As it retraced, I saw an orderly pullback towards the rising 5 period EMA. By orderly I mean small, tight, red candles with no overlapping bodies on declining volume (retracement candles should be smaller than the trend candles otherwise it might be a reversal).

I was watching it on the lower time frames as well. On the 1 min. chart, I look for price to carve out a higher low to indicate that the retracement is over. Then I look for a base. The circles on the chart below mark areas where price pivots and changes direction. This is the base and as soon as I identify a higher low, I prepare to enter if it makes sense on the 15 minute time frame above. I use the previous bar low on the 15 min. as my initial stop.

As you can see everything gelled. Price retraced 50 % of the move from the ORL to the swing high on declining volume. The 5 period ema and price came together at that level.

Today was a down day for the market with most of the WL printing red ink so I wasn't looking for a home run, just a retest of the morning swing high. That target was achieved very quickly. I was hoping for a C&H pattern to develop later on, but that fell through around 2:00.

6 comments:

anarco said...

Very clear and useful explanation of how you work with the different time frames. I appreciate it.
Thanks.

TJ said...

Welcome Anarco,

More confidence when everything is synchronized.

Anonymous said...

rev. my brother,
i did the exact same trade and came out at the ORH ..and i was also looking for C/H pattern but that was too choppy so left it half way//
But the question is:
you said " I missed the open, so by the time I got back, it was already printing some red"

i was there all along..but you have written elsewhere not to jump on the trade but let to come back to 5 EMA on 15 min time frama..if you did go into trade much before, you would be violating that rule.
andy

Anonymous said...

Very nice trade Jamie. Many thanks for your through explanations - much appreciated! Good Luck,

JL

TJ said...

Andy,

Not all retracements back to the 5 ema offer good trading opps. Just trying to frame it for new traders.

TJ said...

Thanks JL,

Good trading!