Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Technical Picture - Another Distribution Day

As you can see from the monthly chart above, the S&P has notched four consecutive higher closes. June is just marginally higher because we spent most of the month consolidating the big move from the three prior months. Also note that the June highs are a key pivot point (support/resistance) over many years and secondly, that the entire move off of the lows took place on declining volume. It is unlikely that we successfully break through without a reasonable retracement.

On the daily, we had another distribution day (lower close on higher volume), that's four in three weeks. Open interest crossed above the neutral line once again. The weak consumer confidence data initiated some profit taking resulting in a fast move down. Choppy sideways trade persisted throughout most of the afternoon with some trimming of losses at the end of the day.

Light crude feels like it wants to retest the highs but it's been choppy and the RSI has pulled back to the mid-range, so clearly it's a tough slog.

The OIH (oil services index) is forming a bearish flag or H&S top, either way, it looks bearish as the MAs converge over price. We would need to see a move back above 105 to neutralize and invalidate the bearish bias.

The $USD has an impact on commodity prices including oil. Currently in a sideways chop. watch for the RSI to test 50. A break above 50 would give the greenback the strength to retrace back to its downsloping trendline.

2 comments:

anarco said...

I am looking at DUG for a potential play in the retirement account. It seems to be forming a inv H&S with neckline at $20. Any thoughts on that chart?
BTW, thanks for the daily analysis of the markets; it does help a lot.

Jamie said...

Anarco,

I posted the DUG chart above. My best advice is follow a couple of oil stocks to confirm your setup. In the post above, I'm comparing DUG as a counter trade to CNQ.