Wednesday, July 01, 2009

Happy Canada Day

What does this post have to do with Canada Day? Nothing, but I just wanted wish our Canadian readers a happy July 1st. Cheers! Oh, and three of the four trades below are Canadian ADRs.

If oil breaks down, DUG will break the channel to the upside.

I've been watching and trading CNQ. Yesterday it broke it's short-term trendline. Today it gapped above it, but turned into a quick fade despite a weaker dollar. Inventory build means less demand, so oil is poised to correct.

On the DUG chart, the same trade would be the reversal at the lower channel line.

The 5 minute chart of CNQ shows how it set up a perfect ambush trade. A decisive move lower after failing to hold on the trendline, followed by a quick retracement. Within the R-zone, it forms a base at the 50% level, breaks higher and stalls at 62%.

POT is another Ambush example. I didn't trade the ambush, but rather the h pattern, which took a long time to get going, but eventually delivered.


RIMM - I'm calling this the Groundhog Day setup. If you've seen the movie, you will get it, but if you haven't, I'm taking the exact same trade as yesterday, at the same price. Worked like a charm today.
PFCB was a stock I found on the TI scanner. The scan is called Stocks with the MOST Upside Momentum. I've modified the scan to meet my particular needs. On a day like today I get a reasonable amount of hits and when I see something I like, I wait for a pullback and jump in.

The stock broke out of C&H pattern and came back to retest the base. This is a shallow retracement as opposed to an ambush, so I prefer to wait for base & break. I exit as price approaches the FE and whole $ level. PFCB carved out a bearish rounded top so I couldn't resist the shorting opp. That was the best part of the trade!

8 comments:

Jim said...

Groundhog_day trade - that is pure comicality.

Thanks for the expanded explanation on ambush trades (ref: decisive retrace into the ambush zone). My last post was probably misleading to Anarco as I was focusing on a shallow flag setup as opposed to a deeper ambush setup.

anarco said...

Jamie,
This post makes me smile and say WOW... the trading is awesome and so are the explanations. Thank you!

Jim,
I actually got quite a bit from your comment to me... and I do not feel more confused; or at least not any more confused than what I normally am :-)
Thanks.

Jamie said...

Hey Jim,

The ambush is a John Carter/ Hubert Senters setup over at TradetheMarkets.com. I subscribe to their nightly free videos. So I've seen it countless times. They apply it to day trades as well as swing trades. I'm finding it very practical to my daily trading routine.

I still like and trade the shallow retracement. It's a main stay, but it's nice to mix things up a bit.

Jamie said...

Thanks Anarco,

I don't think you're confused, but a tip here and there will help build your confidence.

Jim said...

Good info Jamie. Thanks.

anarco said...

Agree Jamie!

john said...

"..wish our Canadian readers a happy July 1st. Cheers! Oh, and three of the four trades below are Canadian ADRs."

Yeah, but they were shorts!

Nice trades as always ...but I don't see a c+h on the PFCB chart (unless it's upside down)??

Separately, as a cheap bastard, I love ambush buys ...makes me feel like I'm buying at a discount.

Jamie said...

John,

Yeah, they were shorts and they worked surprisingly well given that the TSX was closed.

The cup on PFCB is not in full view and we have two handles. I guess it's like those ink blotters, you have to use your imagination.

You and me both, I hate getting into a trade when the move is already underway. The ambush is certainly a good way to get in the move without feeling that it's going to reverse shortly after entry.