Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Technical Picture - Bears Own It





Another distribution day for the major markets which all sold off on accelerating volume. The NASDAQ held at gap support, but the rounded top foreshadows further downside to come. Gap closure, should provide short-term support on the NAZ. The S&P tried to bounce off of support but only managed a shallow intraday retracement before the bears took over the close.

I expect prices to find a short-term bottom tomorrow, after which we fall into the OPEX trade. So I will be looking at key support levels such as POT $105-106 for long entries in early trade tomorrow morning. If POT carves out a reversal stick in my spot, I then target 108-110 as a retracement trade. Don't force it, don't chase it, and don't try to catch a falling knife.




AMGN early strength on analyst upgrade with new target of $65. Also like the daily here as a defensive sector play on potential market weakness.


RIMM was a failed BO. I should have shorted the failure but I thought with earnings out tomorrow Thursday, it might just trade sideways.

CNQ gap turned into a fade - short the h pattern.

SOHU was a HCPG target trade.

7 comments:

M said...

Great blog. I have read many bloggers avoid OPEX days. How does it affect stock trading? Is it better to stay away from trading on these days?

bl said...

Jamie, nice trades. The beloved POT...you leave me no options (G) Missed the AMGN upgrade

bl said...

POT support 90-96 looks like

Jamie said...

Thanks M,

OPEX affects stocks as they tend to trade to and around their options strike prices, so it often results in narrow range chop. This phenomenon tends to start Wednesday afternoon and lasts through EOD Friday. So many traders stay away from trading on those days to avoid the chop.

Jamie said...

BL,

Yeah, stronger support area POT $95-96, but we've got time before we go that low.

Jamie said...

BL,

Scratch that earlier comment - German potash co. lowered guidance so POT $97.50 might be a support level to watch

bl said...

POT-too late! 100Jan10 call bot. We must feed the starving masses!