Monday, June 15, 2009

Technical Picture - $USD Rises - Commodities Fall


Another distribution day in less than one week. So, tomorrow's edition of IBD will say that the market outlook is "under pressure". We are still holding support of 20 EMA which has held on closing basis throughout the rally, but that will change very soon.

VIX gapped up and rallied.

$USD opened strong and spiked into a solid base (blue line segment), poised to retrace higher.

Transports, commodities, materials and gold all much lower on stronger dollar.

A couple of fast trades shortly after the open to capitalize on dollar strength.

4 comments:

Day Tradr said...

Excellent trades Jamie. I had a few quick trades too based on 5 min.

Jamie said...

Nice job Day Tradr!

I see we both traded CNQ. Some days all the action takes place in the first and last hour, so makes sense to try and grab some off of the lower timeframes.

Bryan Z said...

Jamie, the 20 day EMA has held really well so far. What makes you think that will change?

Jamie said...

Bryan,

Two distribution days without any accumulation days could be a sign that the markets have reached a near-term top. If the dollar retraces back to 200 DMA, it will end the commodity rally and the markets will correct. So, I expect we will test the 50 DMA in the near-term.