Sunday, August 15, 2010

Technical Picture - Bears Own It

A bearish engulfing stick on the weekly and a bear flag forming on the daily as the S&P shed 3.8% this week versus 5% for the Nasdaq. Weekly losses were accompanied by higher volume, so we have a bearish bias going into OPEX week.

Support/Resistance lines have been mapped out on the 60 minute chart below. A break above SPY $109.00 would set off a short squeeze, but the path of least resistance is down.

The Euro tested former support (now resistance) and pulled back sharply. Will it bounce at the trendline? Consolidation is more likely. We see a strong co-relation between the Euro and the S&P since the Euro broke support in May. So goes the Euro, so goes the S&P.

I'm not ready to get back into the gold trade just yet, but I suspect it will setup very near-term.